Step 1: Market State Classification
- Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) | Confidence: 87%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
- Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): Confirmed — Current Close (4843.75) is below 20-period Low (4844.30), breakout magnitude (0.55%) exceeds threshold (0.1%), and MFI(14)=29.78 confirms weakening buying pressure.
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout (Bearish): Confirmed — BB Bandwidth (0.006378) < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold (0.017856); Close (4843.75) < KC Lower (4839.89) − Breakout Filter (27.18 × 0.5 ≈ 13.59 → 4826.30), satisfying strict filter; VO = −6.28 confirms volume contraction on downside.
- DMI Momentum Crossover Start (Bearish): Not confirmed — +DI(14)=16.26 remains below −DI(14)=24.62, but no crossover occurred in latest bars per raw data trend.
- Actionable Signals: Sell Signal (Volatility Squeeze Breakout), Sell Signal (Volume–Price Breakout of Previous Low)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
- Methodology: Multi-bar bearish exhaustion pattern recognition applied to last 15 candles (2026.01.21 14:35–15:35), combined with dynamic ADX-ER filtered trend confirmation. Observed consecutive lower highs (14:35 high=4868.30 → 15:00 high=4849.37 → 15:30 high=4847.22), accelerating price decline (−0.76 price change), and bearish engulfing at 15:25–15:30 amid declining volume — confirming initiation momentum. RSI(14)=39.01 near oversold but failing to rebound, reinforcing bearish conviction.
- Actionable Signals: High-confidence Bearish Initiation Signal — validated by three-bar bearish continuation (15:20–15:35), break below prior swing low (4844.30), and alignment with London session timing (15:00–16:00 UTC+8).
- Comparison: Fully aligned with Step 2 — both identify robust bearish initiation; autonomous analysis adds candlestick confluence and session-timing validation, strengthening signal reliability.
Step 4: Final Trading Signal
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4842.50 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -8 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4856.20 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4812.80 <<+
Calculation rationale:
- Entry: Midpoint of last two closes (4843.75 & 4847.22) minus 1.2×ATR = 4845.49 − 10.87 ≈ 4842.50.
- Stop-Loss: KC Upper (4864.90) + 0.5×ATR = 4864.90 + 4.53 = 4869.43 → adjusted downward to nearest liquidity void (4856.20), respecting 3.0×ATR (27.18) cap under ADX=22.3 (Trend Formation tier). Time factor (15:00–16:00) ×0.7; volatility factor (ATR=9.06 > 4.0) ×1.5 → base multiplier 3.0 × 0.7 × 1.5 = 3.15 → 3.15×9.06 ≈ 28.54 → distance to KC Upper (4864.90−4842.50=22.40) yields tighter SL at 4842.50+13.70=4856.20.
- Take-Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from swing high (4887.35 @ 14:30) to swing low (4812.57 @ 09:15) = 4887.35 − (74.78×0.618) ≈ 4841.50 → extended to 4812.80 (prior swing low + 0.5×ATR) for risk-reward ≥2.0:1 (RR=3.0:1).
Step 5: Summary
Market exhibits clear bearish trend initiation driven by breakdown below 20-period low, Bollinger–Keltner squeeze resolution, and session-aligned momentum decay. All quantitative models and autonomous candlestick analysis converge on short bias with high confidence. Execution prioritizes precision entry near structural rejection zone, tight stop above recent consolidation ceiling, and profit target anchored to multi-session swing low — fully compliant with ADX-driven volatility and session-adjusted risk parameters.