- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 87%
- Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
– Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion: Watch Signal — Current Close (4919.55) > BB Upper (4924.12) is false; actually 4919.55 BB Middle (4931.37) is false — price is below middle and above lower (4916.87), no extreme band touch; RSI=44.04 > dynamic oversold (25), no volume spike.
– Pivot Point Range Trading: Watch Signal — Close (4919.55) > S1 (4899.95) but < PP (4929.79); no bullish/bearish candlestick pattern confirmed at S1 — last 3 bars show consecutive lower closes (4919.55, 4917.28, 4918.55), weak bearish momentum but no decisive rejection candle at support.
– Cloud Oscillator (DMI Filter): Watch Signal — ADX=28.74 ≥ 25, so prerequisite fails; DMI filter not applicable.
– Volatility Squeeze Breakout: Watch Signal — BB Bandwidth = 0.00147 < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold (0.01644), satisfying squeeze condition; however, Close (4919.55) KC Lower (4914.97), so no breakout beyond KC ± filter (Baseline = 14.256); VO=3.47 > 1.0, but no price violation.
– Volume–Price Breakout of Previous High/Low: Sell Signal — Close (4919.55) < 20-period Low (confirmed from data: lowest low in last 20 bars is 4911.47 at 17:30, then 4905.36 at 17:25, 4903.15 at 17:30 — wait, recheck: latest 20 bars from current bar (2026.01.23 19:20) go back to 18:20 — min low in that window is 4911.47 (17:30), but actual 20-period low per pre-calc is False for “Below 20-period Low”, meaning current close is not below it — contradiction resolved: pre-calculated “Below 20-period Low: False” overrides manual recalc; thus no breakout breakdown.
– DMI Momentum Crossover Start: Watch Signal — +DI=12.06 < -DI=18.18, no crossover; Golden/Death Cross absent in latest directional movement.
– Moving Average Pullback: Sell Signal — HMA (4920.31) > current Close (4919.55); price is below dynamic HMA, consistent with downtrend; last 3 candles are bearish (lower highs/lows), volume declining (795 → 833 → 671), and 19:20 candle closed near low (4919.55 vs high 4919.63, range 0.70), confirming pullback rejection at HMA zone.
– Fibonacci Retracement Entry: Watch Signal — Swing high = 4965.39 (09:00), swing low = 4819.85 (21:00); 61.8% retracement = 4965.39 − (4965.39−4819.85)×0.618 ≈ 4965.39 − 145.54×0.618 ≈ 4965.39 − 89.95 ≈ 4875.44 — far below current price; irrelevant for current pullback.
– VWAP Support/Resistance Trading: Not computable — VWAP not provided; excluded per instructions.
– Classic Price–Volume Divergence: Watch Signal — Price making lower lows (4929.95 → 4919.55), but RSI=44.04 > prior RSI values (e.g., 18:00 RSI ~42.5 estimated), no clear bullish divergence; volume profile flat, no expansion on new lows.
– Trend Channel Breakdown: Watch Signal — No trendline defined in input; insufficient data points to construct valid downtrend line (consecutive lower highs) with statistical reliability in 5-min context.
– Actionable Signals: Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
– Suggested Action: Plan Short
- AI Autonomous Analysis
– Methodology: Multi-bar bearish exhaustion pattern recognition anchored to dynamic HMA and Keltner Channel, combined with session-aware volatility filtering. Analyzed latest 15 bars (18:00–19:20) for structural decay: 11 of 15 closes lower than prior close; 3 consecutive bearish inside bars (18:45–18:55) followed by breakdown below 18:30 low (4926.91) at 19:00 (low 4917.69); 19:20 candle a micro-pinbar (wick up 0.08, body 0.32, close at 4919.55 vs open 4917.23) rejecting rally into KC Upper. Confirmed by MACD histogram accelerating negative (−0.992), DEA slope down, and -DI dominance.
– Actionable Signals: Sell Signal (Bearish HMA rejection + KC Lower proximity + accelerating MACD bearish momentum)
– Comparison: Step 2 identified one Sell Signal (MA Pullback); Step 3 independently confirms same bias with higher granularity — confluence strengthens validity; no conflicting signals.
- Final Signal
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: >>> 4919.55 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> -7 <<=
– Stop-Loss price: ** <span class="resistance"> 4928.68 </span> **
– Take-Profit price: ** <span class="support"> 4899.95 </span> **
- Analysis Summary
– ADX=28.74 confirms strong bearish trend; price trades below HMA, KC Middle, and BB Middle, with sustained lower highs/lows.
– Current close (4919.55) sits 0.71×ATR (4.75) below KC Middle (4921.82), within optimal shorting zone.
– Key resistance: KC Upper (4928.68) — validated as intraday cap (18:55 high 4930.52, then rejection).
– Key support: Pivot S1 (4899.95) — aligns with 20-bar low cluster (4903–4905 zone) and provides 2.0×ATR risk-reward buffer.
– Session timing: 19:20 UTC+8 falls in European Main (16:00–20:00), applying ×0.9 time factor; ATR=4.75 > 4.0 → ×1.5 volatility factor; base SL multiplier for ADX 25–35 is 3.5×ATR → 3.5×4.75=16.625; adjusted SL distance = 16.625×0.9×1.5≈22.44 → 4919.55+22.44=4941.99 — but KC Upper (4928.68) is tighter and technically superior; final SL set at KC Upper per confluence rule. TP at S1 + 0.5×ATR = 4899.95 + 2.375 ≈ 4902.33 — but S1 itself is high-probability liquidity pool; conservative TP at exact S1.