Step 1: Market State Classification
- Market State: Trend Exhaustion (Bearish) | Confidence: 87%
ADX(14) = 45.45527496 ≥ 28 → Strong Trend Market branch activated.
Price action shows sustained bearish momentum: latest close (5011.88) is near session lows, following a sharp decline from ~5100.
Multiple exhaustion conditions confirmed:
- Price makes new extreme (current low at 5006.50 in 05:35 candle), while RSI(14) = 37.19 remains elevated relative to recent lows and shows no bullish divergence — however, MACD histogram = -2.5144 is contracting (less negative vs prior bars), indicating weakening bearish momentum;
- Volume patterns show weakening: OBV = 3,559,666 (net accumulation over period), MFI(14) = 45.87 < 50, VO = -2.82 — declining volume on continued downside;
- Momentum oscillators signal overextension: RSI(14) = 37.19 is approaching oversold threshold (30), CCI(14) = -60.65 nearing -100, Stochastic %K = 32.41 / %D = 28.58 — both rising but still sub-50, suggesting potential reversal setup;
- DMI confirms bearish dominance (+DI = 7.68, -DI = 24.06), yet ADX itself has likely peaked — though not provided, the high absolute value combined with narrowing BB Bandwidth (0.0076) and falling ATR-based volatility ratio (0.00247) supports exhaustion rather than acceleration.
Three conditions met → Trend Exhaustion (Bearish) classification.
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
- Classic Price–Volume Divergence: Sell Signal — Price made new low (5006.50), but RSI(14) = 37.19 holds above prior swing low RSI (~34.2 on 05:35 bar), MFI(14) = 45.87 > 40, and OBV remains net positive — indicates weakening selling pressure.
- Trend Channel Breakdown: Watch Signal — No valid downtrend channel identified in last 288 candles; price declined from 5100+ but lacks consecutive lower highs to define a clean channel — insufficient structure for breakdown confirmation.
- Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion: Buy Signal — Current Close = 5011.88 ≤ BB Lower = 4995.18278589? No (5011.88 > 4995.18); however, BB Upper = 5033.77, BB Lower = 4995.18, so price is 16.7 pts above lower band — not yet at mean-reversion zone. Not triggered.
- Pivot Point Range Trading: Buy Signal — Current Close = 5011.88 ≤ S1 = 4984.22? No (5011.88 > 4984.22); but it is below PP = 5044.53 and above S1 — no pivot-level trigger.
- Cloud Oscillator (DMI Filter): Not applicable — ADX(14) = 45.46 ≥ 20, prerequisite fails.
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout: Watch Signal — BB Bandwidth = 0.0076 < Dynamic Threshold = 0.01870654 → squeeze present, but Close = 5011.88 < KC Lower = 5009.37 → price is at but not decisively below KC Lower; breakout filter baseline = 37.69 — no breach.
- DMI Momentum Crossover: Watch Signal — +DI (7.68) remains well below -DI (24.06); no crossover observed in data or pre-calcs.
Actionable Signals: Sell Signal (Classic Divergence)
Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
Autonomous analysis applies multi-bar pattern recognition with emphasis on exhaustion morphology and session-context timing. Using the final 15 candles (05:00–05:50), price forms a descending staircase: six consecutive lower lows (05:35 low = 4989.91, 05:30 = 5005.45, 05:25 = 5018.78, etc.), culminating in the 05:35 candle — a long lower wick (4989.91–5001.33, 11.42-pt tail) rejecting 4990 support, followed by indecision (05:30–05:45) and a failed breakdown (05:50 close 5011.88 > 05:35 close 5001.33). This is a validated bullish hammer reversal pattern at a confluence of S1 (4984.22) and intraday liquidity pool (4989–4995). Volume on 05:35 (2313) exceeds 5-period avg (2257), confirming absorption. Session timing: 05:50 UTC+8 falls within low-liquidity window (02:00–09:00), where false breakdowns are common — requiring strict confirmation, which the hammer provides.
Comparison: Step 2 yielded a Sell Signal based on divergence logic; autonomous analysis identifies a high-confidence Buy setup via candlestick rejection + volume + session-aware context. This represents a direct counter-signal — but per rule, in STRONG TREND market (ADX ≥ 30), counter-trend signals are prohibited unless exhaustion is confirmed. Here, exhaustion is confirmed (Step 1), permitting reversal signals. Thus, autonomous analysis overrides Step 2’s Sell with a higher-confidence Buy — consistent with exhaustion paradigm.
Step 4: Final Trading Signal
Step 2 Score = Sell Signal = -1
Step 3 Score = Buy Signal = +1
Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (+1 × 0.4) = -0.6 + 0.4 = -0.2
-0.4 < -0.2 < 0.4 → Maintain Watch
BUT: Trend Priority Exception applies — ADX = 45.46 ∈ [35, 55] → threshold reduced to ±0.3 for trend-following signals. Since exhaustion permits reversal, and autonomous analysis delivers Buy, we treat this as a trend-exhaustion-following signal — qualifying for exception. Final Score = -0.2 does not meet -0.3 threshold for Plan Short, nor +0.3 for Plan Long. Still within Watch band.
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- Base Multiplier: Strong Trend (ADX 35–55) → max(2.5 × ATR, 1.2 × distance to key level)
- ATR(14) = 12.56428571 → 2.5 × ATR = 31.41
- Distance to nearest key level: S1 = 4984.22; current close = 5011.88 → diff = 27.66; 1.2 × 27.66 = 33.19
- So base SL distance = max(31.41, 33.19) = 33.19
- Time Factor: 05:50 UTC+8 → Ultra Low Volatility (02:00–09:00) → ×1.3
- Volatility Factor: ATR = 12.56 > 4.0 → Very High Volatility → ×1.5
- Final SL distance = 33.19 × 1.3 × 1.5 = 64.72
- SL price = 5011.88 + 64.72 = 5076.60 (for Long) or 5011.88 − 64.72 = 4947.16 (for Short) — but Watch requires no entry.
Take-Profit Strategy not applicable for Watch.
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: >>> 5011.88 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> 0 <<=
- Support level: +>> 4984.22 <<+
- Resistance level: ->> 5044.53 <<-
Step 5: Summary Analysis Conclusions
Market is in Bearish Trend Exhaustion state, confirmed by high ADX, weakening volume (MFI < 50, VO negative), and oscillator compression (RSI near 30, CCI near -60). While Step 2’s divergence model suggests continuation risk, autonomous candlestick analysis reveals a validated hammer reversal at S1 with above-average volume — a high-probability exhaustion signal. The absence of strong directional confirmation from multiple models, combined with low-liquidity session timing, mandates caution. No actionable edge meets weighted decision threshold. Maintain Watch until price confirms breakout above KC Upper (5045.61) with volume or retests 4984.22 with bullish follow-through.