Step 1: Market State Classification
- ADX(14) = 13.53003830 < 20 → Consolidation Market branch activated
- Bollinger Bandwidth = 0.00138307; Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold = 0.01706355 → Bandwidth is significantly narrow (0.00138307 ≪ 0.01706355)
- ATR(14) = 7.00357143; Current Price Change = -11.40; Volatility Ratio = 0.00137570 → Low relative volatility (Ratio < 0.002)
- RSI(14) = 57.36543447 → Oscillates near neutral 50 level (57.4 within 45–65 range, no overbought/oversold bias)
- Price action: Last 20 candles show contraction — high of 5074.48 (11:35), low of 5063.69 (10:20), range = 10.79; prior 20-candle range = 27.25 → clear sideways compression
- Market State: Ranging/Consolidation | Confidence: 92%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
- Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion
– Current Close = 5073.91 > BB Upper = 5070.65928571 → not ≤ Lower; not ≥ Upper → No signal
- Pivot Point Range Trading
– Current Close = 5073.91; S1 = 5026.49, R1 = 5092.48 → 5073.91 ∈ (S1, R1), not touching either pivot → No signal
- Cloud Oscillator (DMI Filter)
– Prerequisite met (ADX %D and rising, but %K not 80 → no Golden/Death Cross condition triggered → No signal
- Actionable Signals: None
- Suggested Action: Maintain Watch
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
- Methodology: Multi-condition candlestick pattern recognition on latest 5 bars (11:00–11:35), combined with intraday session context (Asian session: 09:00–14:00, current time = 11:35 UTC+8) and confluence with dynamic bands.
- Observed price structure:
– 11:30 close = 5067.36, 11:35 close = 5073.91 → +6.55 gain in one bar
– 11:35 candle: Open 5067.37, High 5074.48, Low 5066.14, Close 5073.91 → bullish engulfing of prior bar’s body (11:30 body: 5064.66→5067.36), volume = 1437 (below 5-period avg 1311.8? No — 1437 > 1311.8, ratio = 1.095 → modest expansion)
– But: price remains below BB Middle (5077.68) and KC Upper (5078.09); also below SMA5/SMA10 (SMA5 above SMA10 per data, but no cross confirmed)
- RSI(14)=57.4 shows no divergence; MACD Histogram = -0.581 (bearish momentum), DIF < DEA → no bullish momentum confirmation
- No valid reversal pattern at key levels: far from S1/R1, not testing BB Upper or KC Upper
- Conclusion: isolated bullish candle lacks confluence — insufficient for high-confidence signal in ranging regime
- Comparison: Step 2 yielded Maintain Watch; autonomous analysis confirms absence of high-confidence entry — consistent outcome.
Step 4: Final Trading Signal
- Step 2 Signal Score = 0 (Watch)
- Step 3 Signal Score = 0 (no high-confidence Buy/Sell identified)
- Final Score = (0 × 0.6) + (0 × 0.4) = 0
- -0.4 < 0 < 0.4 → Maintain Watch
- Session: Asian Main (09:00–14:00) → Time Factor = 1.1
- ATR(14) = 7.00357143 → Very High Volatility (>4.0) → Volatility Factor = 1.5
- Base Multiplier for Ranging (ADX < 20): 3.5 × ATR = 24.5125
- Final SL Multiplier = 3.5 × 1.1 × 1.5 = 5.775 → SL distance = 5.775 × ATR = 40.45
- But per rule: max(3.5 × ATR, 1.5 × distance to key level); nearest key level = R1 = 5092.48 → distance = 5092.48 − 5073.91 = 18.57 → 1.5 × 18.57 = 27.86 < 40.45 → use 40.45
- However, Watch signal requires no SL/TP — only levels
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: >>> 5073.91 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> 0 <<=
- Support level: +>> 5063.64 <<+ (BB Lower = 5063.63647693 ≈ 5063.64)
- Resistance level: ->> 5077.68 <<- (BB Middle = 5077.68209450 ≈ 5077.68)
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
Market is objectively in a Ranging/Consolidation state (ADX = 13.53, narrow BB bandwidth, neutral RSI, compressed price action). No quantitative model triggers a Buy or Sell signal; autonomous candlestick analysis identifies a single bullish candle but lacks confluence with volume, momentum, or key levels. Risk parameters reflect elevated volatility and Asian session context. The prudent stance is strict observation — await decisive break of BB Upper (5077.68) with volume confirmation or retest of BB Lower (5063.64) with oversold RSI and mean-reversion setup.