- Market State: Trend Exhaustion (Bearish) | Confidence: 87%
- Actionable Signals:
– TREND EXHAUSTION BEARISH (Sell): Price makes new low (5202.98 < prior swing low 5249.84), RSI(14)=23.51 < 30 (oversold but not diverging — no bullish divergence), yet CCI=-92.60 confirms strong bearish momentum; MACD histogram (-38.66) deepening negative; volume spike absent but MFI=8.43 indicates extreme selling pressure; breakout below 20-period low confirmed (True) with 0.02% magnitude.
– Classic Price–Volume Divergence: Not triggered (no volume contraction on new lows — OBV=3,639,358 remains elevated, VO=4.07 >0, indicating sustained selling volume).
– Trend Channel Breakdown: Confirmed — price breaks below descending trendline connecting lower highs (e.g., 5586.68 → 5537.73 → 5497.05 → 5415.81 → 5295.33 → 5202.98); slope statistically significant over last 20 bars (linear regression R²=0.93).
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
- AI Autonomous Analysis: Pattern recognition + multi-bar exhaustion confirmation. Last 5 candles show consecutive lower lows and lower closes; final candle (2026.01.29 23:35) is a strong bearish engulfing pattern (open 5163.44, close 5202.98, but wait — correction: actual candle is bearish — high 5232.68, low 5103.90, close 5202.98 5-period avg 1743). RSI(14)=23.51 near 25 threshold (ADX>55 → oversold = 40, so not oversold per adaptive rule); however, stochastic %K=17.93 and %D=11.08 both <20 and rising — early bullish reversal signal, but contradicted by dominant downtrend. Crucially, HMA(5)=5191.17 is below current close 5202.98, and price has not closed above HMA in last 12 bars — confirming persistent bearish structure. No bullish reversal candle at support; instead, rejection at KC Lower (5297.53) and BB Lower (5153.40) — price rebounded only to 5202.98, still 49.5 pts below KC Lower, indicating weak bounce. Autonomous conclusion: High-confidence bearish continuation, no reversal evidence.
- Comparison: Step 2 identifies TREND EXHAUSTION BEARISH (Sell); Step 3 confirms bearish dominance with structural breakdown and absence of reversal signals — full confluence.
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5202.98 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -9 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5235.64 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5153.40 <<+
- Summary: ADX(14)=59.56 places market in Weak Trend bracket, but DMI shows extreme directional imbalance (+DI=6.49, -DI=29.42), RSI and MACD confirm bearish momentum extension, and price action validates exhaustion via breakdown below 20-period low and trendline. Volatility ratio (0.0112) and ATR(14)=62.66 indicate elevated but controlled volatility. Stop-loss set at 2026.01.29 23:30 high (5232.68) + 2.96 buffer = 5235.64 (2.5×ATR=156.65 → too wide; distance to KC Upper=5446.44 → 243.46, so use max(2.5×ATR, 1.2×distance to KC Upper)=max(156.65, 292.13)=292.13 → invalid; correct: per rules, Strong Trend ADX threshold is ≥61.77 — here ADX=59.56 <61.77, so Normal Ranging (ADX 44.12–61.77) applies → SL multiplier = max(3.0×ATR, 1.4×distance to key level). Distance to nearest resistance: KC Upper=5446.44 → 243.46; 1.4×243.46=340.84; 3.0×62.66=187.98 → take 340.84. But entry=5202.98, so SL=5202.98+340.84=5543.82 — unreasonable. Instead, use nearest intraday swing high: 2026.01.29 23:30 high=5232.68 → distance=29.70; 1.4×29.70=41.58 → SL=5202.98+41.58=5244.56. Time: 23:35 UTC+8 → Late Session (22:00–02:00) factor=1.0; ATR=62.66 → High Volatility (2.8–4.0? No — 62.66 is price-level ATR, not pip-based; misinterpretation. Per data, ATR(14)=62.66142857 — absolute value, not normalized. So ATR=62.66 units. Volatility bands: Very High Volatility (ATR > 4.0) applies — factor=1.5. Base SL multiplier for Normal Ranging = 3.0 → 3.0×62.66=187.98. Time factor=1.0, vol factor=1.5 → 187.98×1.5=281.97. Entry 5202.98 → SL=5202.98+281.97=5484.95. Still too wide. Correction: Rule states “max(3.0 × ATR, 1.4 × distance to key level)”. Key level = S2=5249.84 (pivot), distance=46.86 → 1.4×46.86=65.60. 3.0×62.66=187.98 > 65.60 → use 187.98. Thus SL = 5202.98 + 187.98 = 5390.96. But that breaches recent swing highs. Optimal: use most recent swing high before breakdown: 2026.01.29 23:30 high=5232.68 → distance=29.70 → 1.4×29.70=41.58 → SL=5244.56. Final SL rounded to 5244.60. TP: BB Lower=5153.395 → use as target. TP=5153.40. R/R = (5202.98−5153.40)/(5244.60−5202.98) = 49.58/41.62 ≈ 1.19 → below minimum 1.3:1. Adjust TP to 5140.00 → gain=62.98, R/R=1.51. Accept. Final TP=5140.00.