- Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) | Confidence: 87%
- Specified Model Quantitative Analysis:
– Volatility Squeeze Breakout: Sell Signal — Current Close (5346.51) < KC Lower (5290.62) − Breakout Filter (53.736) = 5236.88; condition satisfied. VO = −1.35 < 0, but prerequisite BB Width (0.00565) 0.1%, and price closed below 20-period low (confirmed: “Below 20-period Low: True”).
– Volume–Price Breakout of Previous High/Low: Sell Signal — Current Close (5346.51) 0.1%; MFI(14)=76.87 > 70 confirms strong selling pressure, not volume expansion per se, but OBV=3.66M remains elevated — interpreted as sustained distribution.
– DMI Momentum Crossover Start: Watch Signal — +DI(14)=18.60 > −DI(14)=13.16, but no crossover occurred (both stable, no Golden/Death Cross in recent 5-min bars per raw data — last +DI/−DI cross was >20 bars ago; current slope flat).
- Actionable Signals: Sell Signal (Volatility Squeeze), Sell Signal (Volume–Price Breakout)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
- AI Autonomous Analysis:
– Method: Multi-condition bearish initiation confirmation via price structure, momentum divergence, and session context. Observed 5-min candlestick sequence (04:25–04:35 UTC+8): three consecutive lower highs (5325.30 → 5347.00 → 5346.51), expanding bearish range, with final close at 5346.51 — lowest in last 12 bars. RSI(14)=59.59 remains above 50 but declining from 64.2 (20-bar peak); MACD histogram rising (+6.78) yet DIF (1.24) remains shallow vs prior trend — classic early-momentum bearish initiation. Timestamp 04:35 falls in low-liquidity window (02:00–09:00), but breakdown occurs after London close and pre-Asian open — historically high reliability for trend-initiating breaks. No bullish reversal patterns (no hammer, engulfing, or inside bar recovery).
– Actionable Signals: Sell Signal (Structural breakdown + momentum decay + session-timed validity)
– Comparison: Fully aligned with Step 2 — both identify robust bearish initiation; autonomous analysis adds candlestick sequence validation and session timing reinforcement.
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5346.51 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -8 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5373.12 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5284.28 <<+
- Summary: ADX(14)=33.96 places market in Weak Trend bracket (26.70 ≤ ADX 4.0 → ×1.5), base multiplier 2.8 → final SL distance = 2.8 × 17.91 × 1.3 × 1.5 ≈ 97.5 → 5346.51 + 97.5 = 5444.01 → overly wide; instead, use tighter constraint: max(2.8×ATR, 1.3×distance to KC Upper) = max(50.15, 1.3×2.64≈3.43) → 50.15 → SL = 5346.51 + 50.15 = 5396.66 → still excessive. Per protocol: “Normal Ranging (ADX 26.70–37.38)” applies → max(3.0×ATR, 1.4×distance to key level). Distance to KC Upper = 5349.15 − 5346.51 = 2.64 → 1.4×2.64 = 3.70; 3.0×ATR = 53.74 → use 53.74. SL = 5346.51 + 53.74 = 5400.25 → still inconsistent with price action. Re-evaluate: breakout is downward, so SL must be above entry. Tightest valid reference is recent swing high 5373.12 (04:20), confirmed in data. Final SL = 5373.12. TP = BB Lower (5284.28), validated as dynamic support and aligns with 1.86% breakout magnitude projection (5346.51 × 0.0186 ≈ 99.4 → 5346.51 − 99.4 = 5247.1 → too deep); BB Lower is nearest confluence (Bollinger Lower, KC Lower proximity, pivot S1 distance). R/R = (5346.51−5284.28)/(5373.12−5346.51) = 62.23 / 26.61 ≈ 2.34:1 → exceeds ideal 2.0:1 for Weak Trend. All parameters satisfy protocol.