Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 36.02126810
Since ADX(14) ≥ 29.17629133, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 29.17629133)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
1. ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 29.17629133): True (ADX = 36.02126810)
2. Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5316.11885714
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5314.38507761
– Current Close = 5273.01000000
– Both moving averages are above the current close, indicating a bearish trend.
3. Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently below the moving averages, indicating a bearish trend.
4. Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 1.06086390, which is positive, but not significantly high. However, the volume is consistent with the trend.
- Classification:
– 3 or more conditions indicate strong trend continuation → CLASSIFY AS MID-TREND (BEARISH)
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 80%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback (HMA Dynamic Period)
– Condition:
– In downtrend (HMA slope down), price rallies to HMA area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– Analysis:
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 5316.11885714
– Current Close = 5273.01000000
– Price is below the HMA, and the last candle is bearish.
– Volume is not significantly decreasing, but it is consistent with the trend.
– Signal: Sell Signal?
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Condition:
– Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Analysis:
– Recent swing high: 5516.11885714 (approximate)
– Recent swing low: 5273.01000000
– 61.8% Fibonacci level: 5389.50000000 (approximate)
– Current Close = 5273.01000000
– RSI(14) = 28.31444464 (below 60, indicating oversold condition)
– MACD Histogram = -9.67188181 (below zero, indicating bearish momentum)
– Signal: Sell Signal?
#### Key Level Validation
- Support/Resistance:
– Pivot Points:
– S1 = 5283.15333333
– S2 = 5217.57666667
– S3 = 5068.38666667
– Current Close = 5273.01000000 (near S1 support)
- Fibonacci Levels:
– Significant price points: 5516.11885714 (swing high), 5273.01000000 (swing low)
– 61.8% Fibonacci level: 5389.50000000 (approximate)
- Volume Confirmation:
– Volume is consistent with the trend, but not significantly increasing.
#### Actionable Signals
- Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
- Sell Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology
- Pattern Recognition:
– Bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing, shooting star)
– Moving average crossovers
– Divergences in indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD)
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
– 5-minute timeframe for short-term signals
– 15-20 bars for recent patterns
- Confluence of Divergences:
– RSI divergence
– MACD divergence
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations
- Asian Session (09:00-14:00): Tendency for ranging, lower volatility thresholds apply.
- London Open (15:00-16:00): Increased volatility, trend initiation probability higher.
- London-NY Overlap (20:00-22:00): Highest liquidity, strong directional moves likely.
- NY Session (20:00-01:00): Highest volatility, trend exhaustion signals more reliable.
- Low Liquidity (02:00-06:00): False breakouts common, require confirmation.
- Economic News: Filter signals 15 minutes before/after major news events.
- Overnight Gaps: Consider gap fills as potential support/resistance levels.
#### Output Analysis Summary
- Rule: In a STRONG TREND market, PROHIBIT the identification of counter-trend signals.
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal? (Bearish candlestick pattern near HMA, RSI < 30, MACD below zero)
- Comparison:
– Both the specified model and autonomous AI analysis identify a Sell Signal.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal = -1
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal = -1
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– Since ADX >= 30 (strong trend), reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
– Final Score ≤ -0.4 → Plan Short
#### Stop-Loss Strategy
- ADX = 36.02126810 (Strong Trend)
- ATR(14) = 29.10571429
- Stop-Loss Multiplier: max(2.5 × ATR, 1.2 × distance to key level)
- Distance to key level (S1): 5283.15333333 – 5273.01000000 = 10.14333333
- Stop-Loss Multiplier: max(2.5 × 29.10571429, 1.2 × 10.14333333) = max(72.76428573, 12.17199999) = 72.76428573
- Stop-Loss Price: 5273.01000000 + 72.76428573 = 5345.77428573 (rounded to 5345.77)
#### Take-Profit Strategy
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX: Minimum 2.0:1, Ideal 2.2:1
- Take-Profit Distance: 72.76428573 * 2.0 = 145.52857146
- Take-Profit Price: 5273.01000000 – 145.52857146 = 5127.48142854 (rounded to 5127.48)
#### Final Signal
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5273.01 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -8 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5345.77 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5127.48 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 80%
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
– Sell Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
- Final Trading Signal:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: >>> 5273.01 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> -8 <<=
– **Stop-Loss price: <span class="resistance"> 5345.77 </span>**
– **Take-Profit price: <span class="support"> 5127.48 </span>**