Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 32.71749351
Since ADX(14) ≥ 30.75993047, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 30.75993047)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 30.75993047): True (ADX = 32.71749351)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5212.16133333
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5215.19360362
– Both moving averages are below the current close price of 5204.11, indicating a bearish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally declining, with some volatility but no clear reversal.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 1.76578191, which is positive, indicating volume support for the trend.
Classification:
- 3 or more conditions indicate strong trend continuation → CLASSIFY AS MID-TREND (BEARISH)
Final Output:
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 80%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback (HMA Dynamic Period)
– Condition: In downtrend (HMA slope down), price rallies to HMA area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– Current Close Price: 5204.11
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 5212.16133333
– Candlestick Pattern: Bearish (Close < Open)
– Volume: Current volume (2539) is lower than the 5-period average (1997.6 * 1.5 = 2996.4)
– Signal: Sell Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Condition: Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Swing High/Low: Recent high at 5592.27 (2026.01.29 16:05), recent low at 5204.11 (current close)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5408.14
– RSI(14): 37.15614887 (below 60)
– MACD: No death cross (DEA = -48.74667659, DIF = -39.95518773)
– Signal: Watch Signal
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Watch Signal (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify key candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context of the 5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Session: Asian Session (09:00-14:00) with lower volatility thresholds.
- Economic News: No major news events within the last 15 minutes.
- Overnight Gaps: No significant gaps observed.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing: Not present.
– Bearish Harami: Not present.
– Bearish Doji Star: Not present.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14): 37.15614887 (below 50, indicating bearish momentum).
– MACD: Below signal line, but no death cross.
– DMI System: -DI(14) > +DI(14), confirming bearish trend.
– Bollinger Bands: Price is near the lower band, indicating potential oversold condition.
– Keltner Channel: Price is below the middle line, confirming bearish trend.
High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- Sell Signal: Based on the bearish trend confirmed by multiple indicators and the Moving Average Pullback model.
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (Bearish trend confirmed by multiple indicators)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (+1)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (+1)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Since ADX >= 30, reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
- Final Score (1.0) ≥ 0.3 → Plan Short
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ATR(14): 41.83142857
- Volatility Adjustment: Normal Volatility (ATR 1.5-2.8) → ×1.0
- Time Adjustment: Asian Main Session (09:00-14:00) → ×1.1
- Base Multiplier: 2.8 (Trend Formation)
- Final Stop-Loss Calculation:
– Base Multiplier × Time Factor × Volatility Factor = 2.8 × 1.1 × 1.0 = 3.08
– Distance to key level (Pivot S1 = 5068.56666667) = 5204.11 – 5068.56666667 = 135.54333333
– Max(3.08 × ATR, 1.4 × distance to key level) = max(3.08 × 41.83142857, 1.4 × 135.54333333) = max(128.46, 189.76) = 189.76
– Stop-Loss Price = 5204.11 + 189.76 = 5393.87
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1.8:1, Ideal 2.5:1
- Swing Points: Previous 15-30 bars
- Buffer: 0.5 × ATR = 0.5 × 41.83142857 = 20.915714285
- Take-Profit Calculation:
– Swing Low: 5204.11
– Take-Profit = 5204.11 – 189.76 – 20.915714285 = 4993.434285715
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5204.11 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -8 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5393.87 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4993.43 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) with 80% confidence.
- Trading Signal: Plan Short
- Entry Price: 5204.11
- Stop-Loss Price: 5393.87
- Take-Profit Price: 4993.43
- Key Indicators:
– ADX(14) = 32.71749351 (strong trend)
– RSI(14) = 37.15614887 (bearish)
– MACD Histogram = 8.79148886 (above signal line, but no death cross)
– -DI(14) > +DI(14) (bearish trend)
– HMA and KAMA below current price (bearish trend)
- Candlestick Patterns: Bearish (Close < Open)
- Volume: Lower than 5-period average, supporting the bearish trend.
This comprehensive analysis confirms a strong bearish trend, and the trading plan is to enter a short position with appropriate risk management.