Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 37.58203179
Since ADX(14) ≥ 29.01182654, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 29.01182654)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 29.01182654): True (ADX = 37.58203179)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5201.13847909
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5205.08413285
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5190.34), indicating a bearish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently moving downward, with the current close (5190.34) below the previous close (5181.46).
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 2.54039835, which is positive, indicating increasing volume, but not significantly high to confirm a strong trend continuation.
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate a strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– Current Close: 5190.34
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 5201.13847909
– Candlestick Pattern: Bearish (Close < Open)
– Volume: Current volume (2226) is lower than the 5-period average (1836.60000000 * 1.17 ≈ 2148.82)
– Signal: Sell Signal (Conditions met: Price near HMA, bearish candle, decreasing volume)
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5592.41 (from 2026.01.29 23:00)
– Swing Low: 5179.17 (from 2026.01.30 11:15)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5380.58
– Current Close: 5190.34 (below 61.8% level, no resistance)
– RSI(14): 37.31321109 (not declining from >60 zone)
– MACD: No death cross (MACD Histogram = 5.71298788, DIF = -39.05987304, DEA = -44.77286091)
– Signal: No Signal (Conditions not met)
#### Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition and Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
– Candlestick Patterns: Look for bearish patterns like bearish engulfing, shooting star, etc.
– Trend Confirmation: Use moving averages and trend lines.
– Volatility and Volume: Analyze ATR and volume spikes.
#### Observations:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing: Not present in the last few bars.
– Shooting Star: Not present in the last few bars.
- Trend Confirmation:
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 5201.13847909 (price below HMA, confirming bearish trend)
– KAMA(10,2,30): 5205.08413285 (price below KAMA, confirming bearish trend)
- Volatility and Volume:
– ATR(14): 39.46142857 (high volatility, confirming strong trend)
– Volume: Current volume (2226) is lower than the 5-period average (1836.60000000 * 1.17 ≈ 2148.82), indicating a potential pullback.
#### Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal (Trend Confirmation and Volume Decrease)
#### Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (Trend Confirmation and Volume Decrease)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Step 2 Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Step 3 Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
#### Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX: 37.58203179 (Strong Trend)
- ATR(14): 39.46142857
- Time Factor: 1.0 (Asian Main Session)
- Volatility Factor: 1.0 (Normal Volatility)
- Base Multiplier: 2.5 (Strong Trend)
- Stop-Loss Calculation:
– Stop-Loss = 5190.34 + (2.5 × 39.46142857 × 1.0 × 1.0) ≈ 5190.34 + 98.65357143 ≈ 5289.00
– Adjusted Stop-Loss: 5289.00 (at least $10 higher than the entry price)
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.0:1 (Strong Trend)
- Take-Profit Calculation:
– Take-Profit = 5190.34 – (2.0 × 98.65357143) ≈ 5190.34 – 197.30714286 ≈ 4993.03
– Adjusted Take-Profit: 4993.03 (at least $10 lower than the entry price)
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5190.34 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5289.00 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4993.03 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
– Sell Signal (Trend Confirmation and Volume Decrease)
- Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: 5190.34
– Signal Strength: -10
– Stop-Loss price: 5289.00
– Take-Profit price: 4993.03
This comprehensive analysis confirms a strong bearish trend, and the trading plan is to enter a short position with appropriate risk management.