Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 28.57765775
Since ADX(14) ≥ 28.06336055, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 28.06336055)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 28.06336055): True (ADX = 28.57765775)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5181.63114286
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5183.01014210
– Both moving averages are close to the current price, but not clearly aligned in a strong trend direction.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been fluctuating, but there is no clear sustained trend direction.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -0.27679233, indicating a slight decrease in volume, which does not strongly support a trend continuation.
Classification:
- Only 1 condition (ADX) strongly indicates a strong trend. Therefore, we do not classify this as a Mid-Trend (Bullish/Bearish) state.
- Option D: Trend Exhaustion State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- Price makes a new extreme, but key indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show divergence:
– Price has not made a new extreme.
- Volume patterns indicate weakening momentum (e.g., declining volume on advances in an uptrend):
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -0.27679233, indicating a slight decrease in volume.
- Potential reversal candlestick patterns appear at key support/resistance levels:
– No clear reversal patterns observed.
- Momentum oscillators show overextended or reversal signals:
– RSI(14) = 39.72525340, which is not overextended.
– MACD Histogram = 4.42428197, indicating a slight bullish signal, but not a reversal.
Classification:
- Only 1 condition (volume) suggests trend exhaustion. Therefore, we do not classify this as a Trend Exhaustion (Bullish/Bearish) state.
#### Probability-Based Fallback Analysis
- Ranging Probability Factors:
– Low ADX value: +40% (Not applicable, ADX is high)
– Narrow price range: +30% (Price range is not narrow)
– Consolidation patterns: +30% (No clear consolidation patterns)
- Initiation Probability Factors:
– Moderate ADX with upward slope: +30% (ADX is high, not moderate)
– Clear breakout signals: +40% (No clear breakout signals)
– Volume confirmation: +30% (Volume is not confirming a breakout)
- Mid-Trend Probability Factors:
– High ADX reading: +40%
– Trend consistency: +30% (Trend is not consistent)
– Channel adherence: +30% (Price is not adhering to a clear channel)
- Exhaustion Probability Factors:
– ADX decline from peaks: +35% (ADX is not declining)
– Multiple divergence signals: +40% (No divergence signals)
– Extended trend duration: +25% (Trend duration is not extended)
Final Output:
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 70%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– Mid-Trend Bearish (Sell): In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 5181.63114286
– Current Close = 5181.62000000
– Price is near the HMA, but no clear bearish candle and volume is not decreasing.
– Signal: Watch Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Mid-Trend Bearish (Sell): Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Recent swing high: 5592.47666667 (R2 Pivot Point)
– Recent swing low: 5151.14000000
– 61.8% Fibonacci level: 5367.64
– Current Close = 5181.62000000
– RSI(14) = 39.72525340 (not declining from >60)
– MACD Death Cross: False
– Signal: Watch Signal
Actionable Signals:
- Watch Signal
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Analyze recent candlestick patterns for potential reversals or continuations.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context of the 5-minute timeframe within the daily and 4-hour timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– No clear reversal or continuation patterns observed in the last 5 bars.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
– Daily and 4-hour charts show a mixed trend, with no clear direction.
- Divergences:
– No significant divergences observed between price and RSI or MACD.
Output Analysis Summary:
- Actionable Signals:
– Watch Signal
Comparison:
- Both the specified model and autonomous AI analysis suggest a Watch Signal.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Watch Signal = 0
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Watch Signal = 0
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (0 × 0.6) + (0 × 0.4) = 0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– Since Final Score = 0, the action is Maintain Watch.
- Stop-Loss Strategy:
– Not applicable since no trade is initiated.
- Take-Profit Strategy:
– Not applicable since no trade is initiated.
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: 5181.62000000
- Signal Strength: 0
- Support level: 5151.14000000
- Resistance level: 5236.69420517
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) with 70% confidence.
- Quantitative Analysis: No clear buy or sell signals from the specified models.
- Autonomous Analysis: No clear buy or sell signals from the autonomous AI analysis.
- Final Trading Plan: Maintain Watch due to the lack of strong signals and the current market state.