Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 41.83223313
Since ADX(14) ≥ 35.48961219, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 35.48961219)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 35.48961219):
– True (ADX(14) = 41.83223313)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5170.05866652
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5181.36100959
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5174.15), indicating a bearish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The recent price action shows a consistent downward movement, with lower highs and lower lows.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 13.30686121, which is positive, indicating increasing volume, but the overall volume pattern does not show a clear trend.
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– Condition: In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– Analysis:
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 5170.05866652
– Current Close = 5174.15
– Price is near the HMA, and the last candle is bearish.
– Volume has decreased from the previous bar.
– Signal: Sell Signal?
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Condition: Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Analysis:
– Recent swing high: 5595.28 (2026.01.29 14:20)
– Recent swing low: 5174.15 (2026.01.30 14:35)
– 61.8% Fibonacci level: 5384.67
– Current Close = 5174.15 (below 61.8% level)
– RSI(14) = 42.21516128 (below 60)
– MACD Histogram = -4.40029147 (negative, but no death cross)
– Signal: Watch Signal?
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators.
Selected Patterns and Indicators:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish engulfing pattern at 2026.01.30 14:35.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 42.21516128 (below 50, indicating bearish momentum).
– MACD Histogram = -4.40029147 (negative, indicating bearish momentum).
– ATR(14) = 21.95357143 (indicating moderate volatility).
Analysis:
- The bearish engulfing pattern and the RSI below 50 suggest a bearish trend.
- The MACD histogram is negative, supporting the bearish trend.
- The ATR indicates moderate volatility, which is typical for a mid-trend market.
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal? (Based on the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI below 50)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal = -1
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal = -1
Final Score Calculation:
- Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
- Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Since ADX >= 30, reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
- Final Score ≤ -0.4 → Plan Short
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ATR = 21.95357143
- ADX = 41.83223313 (Strong Trend)
- Base Multiplier = 2.5 × ATR = 2.5 × 21.95357143 = 54.883928575
- Time Factor (Asian Main Session) = 1.1
- Volatility Factor (Normal Volatility) = 1.0
- Final Stop-Loss = 54.883928575 × 1.1 × 1.0 = 60.3723214325
- Stop-Loss Price = 5174.15 + 60.3723214325 ≈ 5234.52
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio (Strong Trend) = 2.0:1
- Swing Point (Recent High) = 5216.01 (2026.01.30 13:55)
- Take-Profit = 5174.15 – (60.3723214325 × 2.0) ≈ 5053.40
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5174.15 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5234.52 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5053.40 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Specified Model Signals:
– Moving Average Pullback: Sell Signal?
– Fibonacci Retracement Entry: Watch Signal?
- AI Autonomous Analysis:
– Bearish engulfing pattern and RSI below 50: Sell Signal?
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: 5174.15
– Signal Strength: -10
– Stop-Loss price: 5234.52
– Take-Profit price: 5053.40