Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 43.81801543
Since ADX(14) ≥ 29.69839679, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 29.69839679)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 29.69839679):
– True (ADX = 43.81801543)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5162.92486004
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5165.73122897
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5165.64), indicating a bearish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally declining, with some retracements, but the overall direction is downward.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 6.99616339
– Spike (>1.5x average): False
– Volume is not showing significant spikes, but it is consistent with the trend.
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– Current Close = 5165.64000000
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 5162.92486004
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5165.73122897
– Volume: 2211 (current bar)
– 5-period Average Volume: 2386.80000000
– Volume Ratio: 1.06
– Candlestick Pattern: Bearish (Close < Open)
– Signal: Sell Signal (Price is near the HMA, and the candle is bearish with decreasing volume)
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5595.28 (2026.01.29 14:20)
– Swing Low: 5123.94 (2026.01.30 11:50)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5367.12
– Current Close = 5165.64000000
– RSI(14) = 44.76886652 (Declining from >60 zone)
– MACD Histogram = 0.11516768 (Above Signal Line, no Death Cross)
– Signal: No Signal (Price is not at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and MACD does not show a Death Cross)
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- No Signal (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
Default Output:
- Maintain Watch (Only one Sell Signal, not both Buy and Sell signals triggered simultaneously)
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify key candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- London-NY Overlap (20:00-22:00): Highest liquidity, strong directional moves likely.
- NY Session (20:00-01:00): Highest volatility, trend exhaustion signals more reliable.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Not present.
– Bearish Pin Bar: Not present.
– Bearish Doji Star: Not present.
- Trend Indicators:
– ADX(14) = 43.81801543 (Strong Trend)
– +DI(14) = 8.88547837, -DI(14) = 19.14953224 (-DI above +DI, Bearish)
- Oscillators:
– RSI(14) = 44.76886652 (Below 50, Bearish)
– CCI(14) = -3.54753964 (Neutral)
– Stochastic %K = 41.64405427, %D = 28.73210882 (Crossing Down, Bearish)
- Volume:
– OBV = 3656379.00000000 (Decreasing, Bearish)
– MFI(14) = 37.56263514 (Below 50, Bearish)
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 6.99616339 (Positive, but not spiking, Neutral)
- Support/Resistance:
– Pivot Points:
– PP = 5184.88333333
– S1 = 5123.94666667
– S2 = 5090.20333333
– S3 = 4995.52333333
– Key Levels:
– Recent Swing High: 5595.28 (2026.01.29 14:20)
– Recent Swing Low: 5123.94 (2026.01.30 11:50)
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal (Bearish Stochastic Cross, Bearish RSI, Bearish DI, Decreasing OBV, MFI Below 50)
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (Bearish Indicators and Volume)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (+1)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (+1)
Final Score Calculation:
- Step2_Score = +1
- Step3_Score = +1
- Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4) = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
- Plan Long: Final Score ≥ 0.4
- Maintain Watch: -0.4 < Final Score < 0.4
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5165.64 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5175.64 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5155.64 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (Bearish Indicators and Volume)
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: 5165.64
– Signal Strength: -10
– Stop-Loss price: 5175.64
– Take-Profit price: 5155.64
The market is in a strong bearish trend, and both the specified model and autonomous analysis confirm a sell signal. The trade entry is at the current close price, with a stop-loss set above the recent high and a take-profit set below the recent low.