Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 48.29906195
Since ADX(14) ≥ 30.50234427, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 30.50234427)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 30.50234427): True (ADX = 48.29906195)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5058.69466403
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5067.50109519
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5025.41), indicating a bearish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently moving downward, with the current close (5025.41) below the 20-period low.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 8.28596415, indicating increased volume.
– OBV = 3661595.00000000, showing a consistent increase in volume.
Classification:
- 3 or more conditions indicate strong trend continuation → CLASSIFY AS MID-TREND (BEARISH)
Final Output:
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 100%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– Condition: In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– Analysis:
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 5058.69466403
– Current Close = 5025.41
– Price is below the HMA, and the last few candles show a bearish pattern.
– Volume has not significantly decreased, but the overall trend is bearish.
– Signal: Sell Signal? (Reason: Price is below the HMA, and the trend is bearish.)
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Condition: Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Analysis:
– Recent swing high: 5409.35 (09:00 UTC+8)
– 61.8% Fibonacci level: 5200.00 (approx.)
– Current Close = 5025.41
– RSI(14) = 34.46593234 (below 60)
– MACD Histogram = -9.88561222 (death cross confirmed)
– Signal: Sell Signal? (Reason: Price is below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, RSI is declining, and MACD shows a death cross.)
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
- Sell Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify bearish candlestick patterns and confirm with technical indicators.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the 5-minute timeframe and recent patterns.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences in RSI and MACD.
Selected Patterns and Indicators:
- Bearish Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish engulfing pattern at 21:20 (5074.57 -> 5025.41)
- Technical Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 34.46593234 (oversold but still declining)
– MACD Histogram = -9.88561222 (death cross confirmed)
– Bollinger Bands: Current Close (5025.41) is below the Lower Band (5031.95193351)
– Keltner Channel: Current Close (5025.41) is below the Lower Band (5046.37583164)
High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- Sell Signal? (Bearish engulfing pattern, RSI below 40, MACD death cross, and price below Bollinger and Keltner Lower Bands)
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback, Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (Bearish engulfing pattern, RSI, MACD, Bollinger, and Keltner Bands)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (+1)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (+1)
Final Score Calculation:
- Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
- Final Score = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Since ADX >= 30 (strong trend), reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
- Final Score (1.0) ≥ 0.3 → Plan Short
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ATR(14) = 27.61714286
- ADX = 48.29906195 (Very Strong Trend)
- Base Multiplier = max(3.0 × ATR, 1.4 × distance to key level)
- Time Factor (NY Main Session 21:00-22:00) = 0.8
- Volatility Factor (Normal Volatility) = 1.0
- Final Calculation: Base Multiplier × Time Factor × Volatility Factor
- Distance to Key Level (Pivot S1 = 4956.00): 5025.41 – 4956.00 = 69.41
- Base Multiplier = max(3.0 × 27.61714286, 1.4 × 69.41) = max(82.85142858, 97.174) = 97.174
- Final Stop-Loss = 5025.41 + 97.174 × 0.8 × 1.0 = 5025.41 + 77.7392 = 5103.1492 ≈ 5103.15
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX (Very Strong Trend): Minimum 1.2:1, Ideal 1.5:1
- Swing Point (Recent High): 5409.35
- Buffer: 0.5 × ATR = 0.5 × 27.61714286 = 13.80857143
- Take-Profit = 5409.35 – 13.80857143 = 5395.54142857 ≈ 5395.54
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5025.41 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5103.15 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5395.54 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 100%
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
– Sell Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
– Sell Signal? (Bearish engulfing pattern, RSI, MACD, Bollinger, and Keltner Bands)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: >>> 5025.41 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
– **Stop-Loss price: <span class="resistance"> 5103.15 </span>**
– **Take-Profit price: <span class="support"> 5395.54 </span>**