Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 37.89690646
Since ADX(14) ≥ 32.82114676, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 32.82114676)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
1. ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 32.82114676): True (ADX = 37.89690646).
2. Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5081.66310847
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5073.52270847
– Both moving averages are below the current close price of 5094.54, indicating a bearish trend.
3. Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction: The recent price action shows a consistent downward movement.
4. Volume supports the ongoing trend direction: Volume Oscillator (VO) = -3.96313364, indicating a slight decrease in volume, but not enough to negate the trend.
- Classification: 3 out of 4 conditions indicate a strong trend continuation. Therefore, the market state is classified as Mid-Trend Bearish.
- Market State: Mid-Trend Bearish | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and retracement volume decreases.
– Current Close: 5094.54
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 5081.66310847
– Price is above HMA, and the last candle is bearish.
– Volume: No significant change in volume.
– Signal: Sell Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Recent Swing High: 5519.59 (2026.01.29 21:55)
– Recent Swing Low: 5078.19 (2026.01.30 22:30)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5303.74
– Current Close: 5094.54
– RSI(14) = 55.90452621 (not declining from >60 zone)
– MACD Histogram = 11.36306205 (no death cross)
– Signal: No Signal
#### Key Level Validation
- Support/Resistance:
– Pivot Points: S1 = 4981.14000000, S2 = 4909.64000000
– Current Close: 5094.54 (above S1 and S2, indicating potential support at these levels)
- Fibonacci Levels:
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5303.74 (price is below this level, indicating potential resistance)
- Volume Confirmation:
– Volume: OBV = 3684449.00000000, MFI(14) = 77.11997708, VO = -3.96313364
– No significant volume increase or decrease to confirm breakout.
#### Final Summary
- Actionable Signals:
– Moving Average Pullback: Sell Signal
– Fibonacci Retracement Entry: No Signal
- Default Output: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology
- Pattern Recognition: Identify candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations
- Current Time: 22:35 (UTC+8 Beijing Time) – Late Session (22:00-02:00) with high volatility.
- Economic News: No major news events within 15 minutes before/after the current time.
- Overnight Gaps: No significant gaps observed.
#### Analysis
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Last 3 candles show a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.
- Indicators:
– ADX(14) = 37.89690646 (strong trend)
– RSI(14) = 55.90452621 (neutral, not overbought)
– MACD Histogram = 11.36306205 (positive, but no death cross)
– +DI(14) = 19.76398699, -DI(14) = 6.89209211 (+DI above -DI, confirming downtrend)
- High-Confidence Trading Signals:
– Sell Signal: Bearish engulfing pattern and strong ADX value.
- Comparison:
– Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
– Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (Bearish Engulfing Pattern and ADX)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal = -1
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal = -1
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– Since ADX >= 30, reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
– Final Score ≤ -0.4 → Plan Short
#### Stop-Loss Strategy
- ATR: 27.90214286
- Volatility: Normal Volatility (ATR 1.5-2.8)
- Time Factor: Late Session (22:00-02:00) = 1.0
- Base Multiplier: 2.8 (Trend Formation)
- Final Calculation: 2.8 × 1.0 × 1.0 = 2.8
- Stop-Loss Price: 5094.54 + (2.8 × 27.90214286) = 5094.54 + 78.12599999 ≈ 5172.67
- Take-Profit Strategy:
– Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1.8:1
– Take-Profit Price: 5094.54 – (1.8 × 78.12599999) ≈ 5094.54 – 140.62679998 ≈ 4953.91
#### Final Signal
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5094.54 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5172.67 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4953.91 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend Bearish | Confidence: 75%
- Trading Plan: Plan Short
- Entry Price: 5094.54
- Stop-Loss Price: 5172.67
- Take-Profit Price: 4953.91
- Key Support Level: 4981.14
- Key Resistance Level: 5303.74
The market is currently in a mid-trend bearish state, supported by both the specified model and autonomous AI analysis. A sell signal is generated with a stop-loss and take-profit strategy in place.