Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 34.48654811
Since ADX(14) ≥ 30.90287320, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 30.90287320)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 30.90287320): True (ADX = 34.48654811)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5027.51488889
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5032.92859417
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5000.24), indicating a bearish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently moving downward, with lower highs and lower lows.
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -1.26055880, indicating a slight decrease in volume, but not enough to contradict the trend.
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend Bearish | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback
– Mid-Trend Bearish (Sell):
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down): True
– Price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area: Current Close (5000.24) is below HMA (5027.51488889)
– Bearish candle appears: The latest candle is a bearish one (Close < Open)
– Rally volume decreases: Volume is slightly decreasing (VO = -1.26055880)
– Signal: Sell Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Mid-Trend Bearish (Sell):
– Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance:
– Recent swing high: 5545.49 (2026.01.29 22:30)
– Recent swing low: 5000.24 (latest close)
– 61.8% Fibonacci level: 5272.85
– Current price (5000.24) is below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, indicating potential resistance.
– RSI(14) declines from >60 zone: RSI(14) = 38.04431806 (below 60)
– MACD death cross confirmation: MACD Histogram = -10.31081132 (below zero, indicating bearish momentum)
– Signal: Sell Signal
#### Key Level Validation
- Support/Resistance:
– Pivot Points:
– S1 = 5000.00000000
– S2 = 4919.07000000
– S3 = 4765.41000000
– Current Close (5000.24) is very close to S1, indicating a key support level.
- Volume Confirmation:
– Volume is slightly decreasing (VO = -1.26055880), but still within acceptable levels for a sell signal.
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology
- Pattern Recognition:
– Identify bearish candlestick patterns and confirm with technical indicators.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
– Use 2-3 bar patterns and 15-20 bars for recent patterns.
- Confluence of Divergences:
– Check for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
#### Observations
- Candlestick Patterns:
– The latest candle is a bearish one, confirming the downtrend.
- Technical Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 38.04431806 (below 50, indicating bearish momentum)
– MACD Histogram = -10.31081132 (below zero, indicating bearish momentum)
– ADX(14) = 34.48654811 (indicating a strong trend)
– Moving Averages (HMA and KAMA) are below the current close, confirming the bearish trend.
#### Actionable Signals
- High-Confidence Trading Signal:
– Sell Signal
#### Comparison
- Specified Model (Step 2) vs. Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3):
– Both analyses confirm a Sell Signal.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal = -1
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal = -1
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
#### Threshold-Based Action
- Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
#### Stop-Loss Strategy
- ADX = 34.48654811 (Strong Trend)
- ATR(14) = 31.49571429
- Time Factor (UTC+8 Beijing Time): 23:05 (Late Session) = 1.0
- Volatility Factor (Normal Volatility): 1.0
- Base Multiplier: 2.5 × ATR = 2.5 × 31.49571429 = 78.739285725
- Stop-Loss Price: 5000.24 + 78.739285725 = 5078.98
- Validation:
– Stop-loss price should be at least $10 higher than the entry price: 5000.24 + 10 = 5010.24
– 5078.98 is valid.
#### Take-Profit Strategy
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX:
– Strong Trend (ADX 37.90287320-57.90287320): Minimum 2.0:1, Ideal 2.2:1
- TP Placement:
– Use swing points from previous 15-30 bars: Recent swing low = 5000.24
– Add 0.5×ATR buffer: 0.5 × 31.49571429 = 15.747857145
– Take-Profit Price: 5000.24 – 15.747857145 = 4984.49
- Validation:
– Take-profit price should be at least $10 lower than the entry price: 5000.24 – 10 = 4990.24
– 4984.49 is valid.
#### Final Signal
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5000.24 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5078.98 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4984.49 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend Bearish | Confidence: 75%
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal (confirmed by both specified model and autonomous AI analysis)
- Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: 5000.24
– Signal Strength: -10
– Stop-Loss price: 5078.98
– Take-Profit price: 4984.49
This trading plan is based on a strong bearish trend, supported by multiple technical indicators and candlestick patterns. The stop-loss and take-profit levels are set to manage risk and maximize potential gains.