Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 60.20137726
Since ADX(14) ≥ 32.75161987, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 32.75161987)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 32.75161987):
– True (ADX = 60.20137726)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER: ER > 0.5 -> 5, ER 14, else -> 9) = 4857.92066667
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4876.08974451
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (4812.13), indicating a bearish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently moving downward, with the current close (4812.13) below the 20-period low, indicating a bearish trend.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -3.00624828
– OBV = 3664911.00000000
– MFI(14) = 23.20914092 (below 50, indicating bearish momentum)
– Volume and momentum indicators support the bearish trend.
Classification:
- 3 or more conditions indicate strong trend continuation → CLASSIFY AS MID-TREND (BEARISH).
Market State: [Mid-Trend Bearish] | Confidence: [100]%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– Current Close = 4812.13000000
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 4857.92066667
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4876.08974451
– Volume = 2758 (current bar)
– Previous Volume = 2711 (previous bar)
– Candlestick Pattern: Bearish (Close < Open)
– Condition Check:
– Price is below both HMA and KAMA, indicating a pullback.
– Volume decreased from the previous bar.
– Bearish candle pattern.
– Signal: Sell Signal?
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5408.03000000 (R3 Pivot Point)
– Swing Low: 4812.13000000 (Current Close)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5059.89000000 (R1 Pivot Point)
– RSI(14) = 21.76882725 (below 30, indicating oversold)
– MACD Histogram = -12.21069682 (below zero, indicating bearish momentum)
– Condition Check:
– Price is below the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
– RSI is below 30, indicating oversold conditions.
– MACD histogram is negative, confirming bearish momentum.
– Signal: Sell Signal?
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
- Sell Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify bearish candlestick patterns and confirm with technical indicators.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the 5-minute timeframe and recent 15-20 bars.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences in RSI, MACD, and other oscillators.
Selected Timeframe:
- Current Time: 01:50 (UTC+8 Beijing Time)
- Session: Ultra Low Volatility (02:00-09:00)
- Volatility: Normal (ATR = 34.06714286)
Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Current bar (01:50) shows a bearish engulfing pattern.
- Technical Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 21.76882725 (oversold)
– MACD Histogram = -12.21069682 (bearish)
– DMI System: +DI(14) = 3.94796178, -DI(14) = 32.10165570 (bearish)
– Volume: Decreasing, confirming bearish momentum
High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- Sell Signal? (Bearish Engulfing Pattern + RSI Oversold + MACD Bearish + DMI Bearish)
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback, Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal? (Bearish Engulfing Pattern + RSI Oversold + MACD Bearish + DMI Bearish)
- Both analyses confirm a sell signal.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2) Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3) Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
#### Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX = 60.20137726 (Very Strong Trend)
- ATR = 34.06714286
- Base Multiplier: max(3.0 × ATR, 1.4 × distance to key level)
- Time Factor: 1.3 (Ultra Low Volatility)
- Volatility Factor: 1.0 (Normal Volatility)
- Distance to Key Level: 4845.58000000 (S1 Pivot Point)
- Stop-Loss Price: 4812.13 + (3.0 × 34.06714286 × 1.3) = 4812.13 + 133.068 = 4945.198
- Adjusted Stop-Loss Price: 4812.13 + 10 = 4822.13 (Minimum $10 higher than entry price)
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1.2:1, Ideal 1.5:1
- Take-Profit Price: 4812.13 – (1.2 × 133.068) = 4812.13 – 159.6816 = 4652.4484
- Adjusted Take-Profit Price: 4812.13 – 10 = 4802.13 (Minimum $10 lower than entry price)
The Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4812.13 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4822.13 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4652.45 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend Bearish | Confidence: 100%
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
– Sell Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
– Sell Signal? (Bearish Engulfing Pattern + RSI Oversold + MACD Bearish + DMI Bearish)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
- Final Trading Signal:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: >>> 4812.13 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
– **Stop-Loss price: <span class="resistance"> 4822.13 </span>**
– **Take-Profit price: <span class="support"> 4652.45 </span>**