Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 52.04895175
Since ADX(14) ≥ 33.32611433, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 33.32611433)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 33.32611433): True (ADX = 52.04895175)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER: 5) = 4865.40666667
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4882.79962612
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (4883.38), indicating a bearish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally declining over the last few bars.
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -1.10241010, indicating a slight decrease in volume, but not significantly against the trend.
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and retracement volume decreases.
– Current Close Price: 4883.38
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 4865.40666667
– Candlestick Pattern: The latest candle is a bullish one, which does not meet the condition.
– Volume: Volume is slightly decreasing, but the candle pattern is not bearish.
– Signal: No signal (Condition not met).
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Swing High/Low: Identify recent swing high/low from the provided data.
– Recent Swing High: 5418.41 (2026.01.30 09:55)
– Recent Swing Low: 4800.48 (2026.01.31 01:55)
– Fibonacci Levels:
– 61.8% Retracement: 5009.45
– Current Close Price: 4883.38
– RSI(14): 39.68498200 (Below 60, so no decline from >60 zone)
– MACD: DIF = -41.35303039, DEA = -39.64038733, MACD Histogram = -1.71264307 (No death cross)
– Signal: No signal (Condition not met).
#### Summary:
- Actionable Signals:
– No Buy or Sell signals triggered.
- Default Output: Maintain Watch
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition and Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
– Candlestick Patterns: Look for bearish reversal patterns.
– Trend Confirmation: Use moving averages and trend indicators.
– Volatility and Session Considerations:
– Current session: 02:00-09:00 (Low Volatility, Asian Session)
– ATR: 36.22142857 (High Volatility)
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– The latest candle is a bullish one, but the overall trend is bearish.
- Trend Indicators:
– ADX(14) = 52.04895175 (Strong trend)
– +DI(14) = 14.04758382, -DI(14) = 24.59354809 (-DI above +DI, confirming bearish trend)
– Moving Averages: HMA and KAMA are both below the current price, indicating a bearish trend.
- Volume:
– Volume is slightly decreasing, but not significantly.
#### Actionable Signals:
- High-Confidence Trading Signal:
– Sell Signal: The market is in a strong bearish trend, and the latest candle is a minor pullback. The trend is likely to continue.
#### Comparison with Step 2:
- Step 2 (Specified Model): No signals triggered.
- AI Autonomous Analysis: Sell Signal (High-Confidence).
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Step 2 Score: 0 (No signals)
- Step 3 Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (0 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -0.4
#### Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX: 52.04895175 (Very Strong Trend)
- ATR: 36.22142857
- Base Multiplier: 2.5 × ATR = 2.5 × 36.22142857 = 90.55357143
- Time Factor: 1.3 (Ultra Low Volatility, 02:00-09:00)
- Volatility Factor: 1.5 (Very High Volatility, ATR > 4.0)
- Final Stop-Loss Price:
– 90.55357143 × 1.3 × 1.5 = 176.5524881
– Stop-Loss Price = 4883.38 + 176.5524881 = 5059.9324881 ≈ 5060.00
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX: Very Strong Trend (ADX > 60.32611433): Minimum 1.2:1, Ideal 1.5:1
- TP Placement Rules:
– Use swing points from previous 15-30 bars.
– Add 0.5×ATR buffer beyond swing points.
– Avoid obvious psychological levels.
- Recent Swing Low: 4800.48
- Take-Profit Price:
– 4883.38 – (1.5 × 90.55357143) = 4883.38 – 135.8303571 = 4747.5496429 ≈ 4747.55
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4883.38 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -1 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5060.00 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4747.55 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Quantitative Model Analysis: No actionable signals.
- AI Autonomous Analysis: High-confidence sell signal.
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: 4883.38
– Signal Strength: -1
– Stop-Loss price: 5060.00
– Take-Profit price: 4747.55
This trading plan is based on the strong bearish trend and the high-confidence sell signal from the autonomous analysis.