Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 39.05696902
Since ADX(14) ≥ 30.58400262, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 30.58400262)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 30.58400262): True (ADX = 39.05696902)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 4739.05399736
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4730.06519068
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (4754.81), indicating a bullish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally increasing, with some pullbacks, but the overall direction is upward.
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -2.19890894 (slightly negative, but not significantly divergent from the trend)
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback (HMA Dynamic Period)
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy):
– In uptrend (HMA slope up): True (HMA = 4739.05399736, current close = 4754.81)
– Price retraces to HMA area: Current close (4754.81) is above HMA (4739.05399736)
– Bullish candle appears: The latest candle is a small bearish candle, but the previous candles show a bullish trend.
– Retracement volume decreases: Volume is slightly lower than the 5-period average (2273.20000000).
– Signal: Buy Signal (with caution due to the small bearish candle)
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy):
– Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and stabilizes:
– Recent swing high: 5115.85 (2026.01.30 20:45)
– Recent swing low: 4645.59 (2026.02.02 09:20)
– 61.8% Fibonacci level: 4882.73
– Current close (4754.81) is below the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
– RSI(14) recovers from <40 zone: RSI(14) = 70.99147159 (overbought, not recovering from <40)
– MACD golden cross confirmation: MACD Histogram = 6.25086759 (above signal line, but no recent golden cross)
– Signal: No Buy Signal (price not at 61.8% Fibonacci level, RSI not recovering from <40, no recent golden cross)
#### Actionable Signals:
- Buy Signal: Moving Average Pullback (HMA Dynamic Period)
- Sell Signal: None
- Watch Signal: Fibonacci Retracement Entry
- Default Output: Plan Long
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Analyze candlestick patterns and their confluence with technical indicators.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the 5-minute timeframe and its interaction with higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Current Session: 19:20 (UTC+8 Beijing Time) – Asian Session (tendency for ranging, lower volatility thresholds apply).
- Economic News: No major news events within the last 15 minutes.
- Overnight Gaps: No significant gaps observed.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Latest Candle: Small bearish candle, indicating a minor pullback.
– Previous Candles: Generally bullish, with higher highs and higher lows.
- Technical Indicators:
– RSI(14): 70.99147159 (overbought, but not extreme)
– MACD: Above signal line, but no recent golden cross.
– ADX(14): 39.05696902 (strong trend)
– Bollinger Bands: Current close (4754.81) is near the middle band (4764.23544332).
- High-Confidence Trading Signals:
– Buy Signal: The market is in a strong uptrend, and the latest pullback is a potential buying opportunity.
– Sell Signal: None (counter-trend signals prohibited in a strong trend market).
- Comparison with Step 2:
– Step 2 (Specified Model): Buy Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
– Autonomous AI Analysis: Buy Signal (strong uptrend, minor pullback)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Step 2 (Specified Model): Buy Signal (+1)
- Step 3 (Autonomous AI Analysis): Buy Signal (+1)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– Since ADX >= 30, reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
– Final Score (1.0) ≥ 0.3 → Plan Long
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX: 39.05696902 (Strong Trend)
- ATR(14): 20.19428571
- Time Factor: 1.0 (Asian Main Session)
- Volatility Factor: 1.0 (Normal Volatility)
- Base Multiplier: 2.5 (Strong Trend)
- Stop-Loss Calculation:
– Base Multiplier × ATR = 2.5 × 20.19428571 = 50.48571428
– Distance to key level: 4754.81 – 4641.07 (Pivot Point S1) = 113.74
– Max(50.48571428, 1.2 × 113.74) = 50.48571428
– Stop-Loss Price: 4754.81 – 50.48571428 = 4704.32
- Take-Profit Strategy:
– Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX: Minimum 2.0:1
– TP Placement Rules:
– Use swing points from previous 15-30 bars: 5115.85 (recent swing high)
– Add 0.5×ATR buffer: 0.5 × 20.19428571 = 10.09714286
– Take-Profit Price: 5115.85 – 10.09714286 = 5105.75
- Final Signal:
– Direction signal: Long
– Trade entry price: >>> 4754.81 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> 1 <<=
– **Stop-Loss price: <span class="support"> 4704.32 </span>**
– **Take-Profit price: <span class="resistance"> 5105.75 </span>**
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
- Actionable Signals:
– Buy Signal: Moving Average Pullback (HMA Dynamic Period)
– Sell Signal: None
– Watch Signal: Fibonacci Retracement Entry
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Long
– Trade entry price: 4754.81
– Signal Strength: 1
– Stop-Loss price: 4704.32
– Take-Profit price: 5105.75
The market is in a strong uptrend, and the latest pullback provides a good buying opportunity. The stop-loss and take-profit levels are set based on the ATR and key support/resistance levels.