Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 43.92821828
Since ADX(14) ≥ 32.15545064, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 32.15545064)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 32.15545064): True (ADX = 43.92821828)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER: 5) = 4758.36066667
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4746.83507575
– Current Close = 4773.24000000
– Both moving averages are below the current close, indicating a bullish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally increasing, with some minor pullbacks.
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– OBV = 3675360.00000000
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -2.09695793 (slightly negative, but not significantly so)
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy):
– In uptrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope up), price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bullish candle appears, and retracement volume decreases.
– Current Close: 4773.24000000
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 4758.36066667
– KAMA(10,2,30): 4746.83507575
– Volume: 2119 (current bar), 2163 (previous bar)
– Candlestick Pattern: Bullish (Close > Open)
– Conclusion: The price is above the HMA and KAMA, and the volume is slightly lower than the previous bar. A bullish candle is present.
– Signal: Buy Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy):
– Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and stabilizes, RSI(14) recovers from <40 zone, MACD golden cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5125.32333333 (R3 Pivot Point)
– Swing Low: 4575.90000000 (Low on 2026.02.02 16:00)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 4877.16000000
– Current Close: 4773.24000000
– RSI(14): 74.04267496 (Overbought, but not in the recovery zone)
– MACD Histogram: 5.34933098 (Above Signal, but no golden cross)
– Conclusion: The price is not at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and RSI and MACD do not meet the criteria.
– Signal: No Signal
#### Actionable Signals:
- Buy Signal: Moving Average Pullback
- Sell Signal: None
- Watch Signal: Fibonacci Retracement Entry
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify common candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Session: London-NY Overlap (20:00-22:00) – Highest liquidity, strong directional moves likely.
- Economic News: No major news events within 15 minutes before/after the current time.
- Overnight Gaps: No significant gaps observed.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bullish Engulfing: Not present.
– Bullish Harami: Not present.
– Bullish Doji Star: Not present.
– Bullish Hammer: Not present.
– Bullish Piercing Line: Not present.
– Bullish Marubozu: Present (Current Close > Open, no wicks).
- Indicators:
– RSI(14): 74.04267496 (Overbought, but still rising)
– MACD: DIF = 26.60107943, DEA = 21.25174845, Histogram = 5.34933098 (Above Signal, but no golden cross)
– DMI System: +DI(14) = 28.49690641, -DI(14) = 7.65297556 (+DI > -DI, but no golden cross)
– Volume: OBV = 3675360.00000000, VO = -2.09695793 (Slightly negative, but not significantly so)
- Trend Confirmation:
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 4758.36066667 (Below current close, confirming uptrend)
– KAMA(10,2,30): 4746.83507575 (Below current close, confirming uptrend)
- Actionable Signals:
– Buy Signal: Confirmed by the presence of a bullish Marubozu candle, RSI in overbought but rising, and moving averages confirming the uptrend.
– Sell Signal: None
– Watch Signal: None
#### Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Buy Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Buy Signal (Bullish Marubozu, RSI, and moving averages)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Buy Signal (+1)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Buy Signal (+1)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 0.6 + 0.4 = 1.0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– Since ADX >= 30 (strong trend), reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
– Final Score (1.0) ≥ 0.3 → Plan Long
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ATR(14): 19.39428571
- Time Factor: 0.8 (NY Main Session)
- Volatility Factor: 1.0 (Normal Volatility)
- Base Multiplier: 2.5 (Strong Trend)
- Stop-Loss Calculation:
– Base Multiplier × Time Factor × Volatility Factor = 2.5 × 0.8 × 1.0 = 2.0
– Stop-Loss Price = 4773.24000000 – (2.0 × 19.39428571) = 4773.24000000 – 38.78857142 = 4734.45142858
– Adjusted Stop-Loss Price: 4734.45 (rounded to 2 decimal places)
- Take-Profit Strategy:
– Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.0:1 (Strong Trend)
– Take-Profit Calculation:
– Take-Profit Price = 4773.24000000 + (2.0 × 38.78857142) = 4773.24000000 + 77.57714284 = 4850.82
– Adjusted Take-Profit Price: 4850.82 (rounded to 2 decimal places)
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Long
- Trade entry price: >>> 4773.24 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> 1 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: +>> 4734.45 <<+
- Take-Profit price: ->> 4850.82 <<-
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
- Primary Analysis (Step 2):
– Buy Signal: Moving Average Pullback
– No Signal: Fibonacci Retracement Entry
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3):
– Buy Signal: Confirmed by bullish Marubozu, RSI, and moving averages
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Long
– Trade entry price: >>> 4773.24 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> 1 <<=
– **Stop-Loss price:** **<span class="support"> 4734.45 </span>**
– **Take-Profit price:** **<span class="resistance"> 4850.82 </span>**