Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 29.50082400
Since ( 24.53604996 leq ADX(14) < 32.53604996 ), we analyze the market as a Weak Trend Market.
#### Weak Trend Market Analysis (24.53604996 ≤ ADX < 32.53604996)
- Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- Clear breakout above (bullish) or below (bearish) a key resistance or support level:
– Below 20-period Low: True
– Magnitude: 1.44%
- Volume expansion confirms the breakout:
– Volume Spike (>1.5x average): False
– Ratio: 1.03
- ADX begins to rise from low levels:
– ADX(14) = 29.50082400 (This is not a very low level, but it is rising)
- Price maintains direction in the breakout’s favor for multiple bars:
– The price has been below the 20-period low and has maintained this direction.
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions are met (Breakout, Price Direction, ADX Rising). Therefore, we classify the market as Trend Initiation (Bearish).
Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout
– Prerequisite: BB Width < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold
– BB Bandwidth = 0.01402771 (Dynamic Bandwidth = 0.02033738)
– Condition Met: True
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): Close 1.0 AND Breakout Confirmation
– Close = 4762.76000000
– KC Lower = 4713.95927042
– Breakout Filter = 50.37214286
– VO = -3.31131229
– Condition Met: False (Close > KC Lower – Breakout Filter, VO < 1.0)
- Volume – Price Breakout of Previous High / Low
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): Close 0.1%
– Close = 4762.76000000
– Previous 20-period Low = 4717.67000000
– Increased Volume: False (Spike > 1.5x average: False)
– Breakout Magnitude = 1.44%
– Condition Met: False (Close > Previous 20-period Low, No Increased Volume)
- DMI Momentum Crossover Start
– Prerequisite: 24.53604996 ≤ ADX(14) < 32.53604996
– Condition Met: True
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): -DI(14) crosses above +DI(14) (Death Cross)
– +DI(14) = 15.12198445
– -DI(14) = 15.85383377
– Condition Met: True (-DI > +DI, Death Cross)
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal: DMI Momentum Crossover Start (Death Cross)
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify candlestick patterns and trend lines.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Use 5-minute and 15-minute timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences in RSI, MACD, and volume.
Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Not present.
– Bearish Pin Bar: Not present.
– Bearish Harami Pattern: Not present.
- Trend Lines:
– Downtrend Line: Price is below the downtrend line connecting consecutive lower highs.
- Divergences:
– RSI Divergence: No significant divergence.
– MACD Divergence: No significant divergence.
– Volume Divergence: No significant divergence.
High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- Sell Signal: Price is below the 20-period low and maintaining the bearish trend.
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (DMI Momentum Crossover Start)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (Price below 20-period low and maintaining bearish trend)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (+1)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (+1)
Final Score Calculation:
- Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
- Final Score = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≥ 0.4
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX = 29.50082400 (Trend Formation)
- ATR = 16.79071429
- Base Multiplier = 2.8 × ATR = 47.01400000
- Time Factor (NY Main Session) = 0.8
- Volatility Factor (Normal Volatility) = 1.0
- Final Stop-Loss = 47.01400000 × 0.8 × 1.0 = 37.61120000
- Entry Price = 4762.76000000
- Stop-Loss Price = 4762.76000000 – 37.61120000 = 4725.14880000
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio (Trend Formation) = Minimum 1.8:1, Ideal 2.5:1
- Swing Point (Recent Low) = 4717.67000000
- Buffer = 0.5 × ATR = 8.39535714
- Take-Profit = 4717.67000000 – 8.39535714 = 4709.27464286
The Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4762.76 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4725.15 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4709.27 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) with 75% confidence.
- Key Indicators:
– ADX(14) = 29.50082400 (Weak Trend)
– -DI(14) > +DI(14) (Death Cross)
– Price below 20-period low and maintaining bearish trend.
- Trading Signal:
– Short Signal with high confidence.
– Entry Price: 4762.76
– Stop-Loss: 4725.15
– Take-Profit: 4709.27
This trading plan is based on the current market state and the confluence of technical indicators, providing a clear and actionable signal.