Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 21.97928938
Since ( 21.05271565 leq text{ADX(14)} < 29.05271565 ), we analyze the market as a Weak Trend Market.
#### Weak Trend Market Analysis (21.05271565 ≤ ADX < 29.05271565)
- Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- Clear breakout above (bullish) or below (bearish) a key resistance or support level:
– Above 20-period High: True
– Below 20-period Low: False
– Magnitude: 0.49%
- Volume expansion confirms the breakout:
– Volume Spike (>1.5x average): False
– Ratio: 1.02
- ADX begins to rise from low levels:
– ADX(14) = 21.97928938 (This is not very low, but it is rising)
- Price maintains direction in the breakout’s favor for multiple bars:
– The price has been above the 20-period high, and the current close is 4656.82, which is still above the 20-period high.
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions confirm trend initiation.
Market State: Trend Initiation (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout
– Prerequisite: BB Width < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold
– BB Bandwidth = 0.00886428 (Dynamic Bandwidth = 0.02118772)
– Condition Met: True
– Trend Initiation Bullish (Buy): Close > KC Upper Band + Breakout Filter AND VO > 1.0 AND Breakout Confirmation
– Close = 4656.82
– KC Upper = 4698.82073580
– Breakout Filter = 58.84285714
– VO = -0.25988754 (Not > 1.0)
– Condition Not Met: False
- Volume – Price Breakout of Previous High / Low
– Trend Initiation Bullish (Buy): Close > Previous 20-period High AND Increased Volume AND Breakout Magnitude > 0.1%
– Close = 4656.82
– Previous 20-period High = 4718.82000000
– Increased Volume: False
– Breakout Magnitude = 0.49% (Condition Met)
– Condition Not Met: False
- DMI Momentum Crossover Start
– Prerequisite: 21.05271565 ≤ ADX(14) < 29.05271565
– Condition Met: True
– Trend Initiation Bullish (Buy): +DI(14) crosses above -DI(14) (Golden Cross)
– +DI(14) = 12.50785210
– -DI(14) = 26.23335856
– Condition Not Met: False
Actionable Signals:
- No Buy or Sell signals triggered.
Default Output: Maintain Watch
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition and Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
– Candlestick Patterns: Look for bullish or bearish patterns.
– Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Use 2-3 bar patterns and 15-20 bars for recent patterns.
– Confluence of Divergences: Check for RSI, MACD, and volume divergences.
Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Recent Bars: No clear bullish or bearish reversal patterns.
- RSI and MACD:
– RSI(14) = 45.89941005 (Neutral)
– MACD Histogram = -2.33484351 (Bearish, but not strong)
- Volume:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -0.25988754 (Decreasing volume, not supportive of a strong trend)
Actionable Signals:
- No high-confidence trading signals identified.
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): No Buy or Sell signals.
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): No high-confidence trading signals.
Step 4: Generate 1 Trading Signal Based on the Confirmed Trading Plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): 0 (Maintain Watch)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): 0 (Maintain Watch)
Final Score Calculation:
- Final Score = (0 × 0.6) + (0 × 0.4) = 0
Threshold-Based Action:
- -0.4 < Final Score < 0.4 → Maintain Watch
The Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: 4656.82
- Signal Strength: 0
- Support level: 4615.82
- Resistance level: 4733.28
Step 5: Summarize Analysis Conclusions
- Market State: Trend Initiation (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
- No high-confidence trading signals were generated by either the specified model or the autonomous AI analysis.
- The final trading plan is to maintain a watch position.
- Key Levels: Support at 4615.82, Resistance at 4733.28.
This concludes the quantitative analysis for XAUUSD based on the provided data and requirements.