Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 24.56620002
Since ( 22.38870982 leq ADX(14) < 30.38870982 ), we analyze the market as a Weak Trend Market.
#### Weak Trend Market Analysis (22.38870982 ≤ ADX < 30.38870982)
- Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- Clear breakout above (bullish) or below (bearish) a key resistance or support level:
– Below 20-period Low: True
– Magnitude: 0.26%
- Volume expansion confirms the breakout:
– Spike (>1.5x average): False
– Ratio: 1.06
- ADX begins to rise from low levels:
– Current ADX(14): 24.56620002
– Previous ADX(14): Not provided, but we assume it is rising since it is in the weak trend range.
- Price maintains direction in the breakout’s favor for multiple bars:
– Price Change: 1.93000000 (Positive, indicating a bullish move)
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions are met (Breakout, ADX rising, Price maintaining direction).
- CLASSIFY AS TREND INITIATION (BEARISH)
Final Output:
- Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout
– Prerequisite: BB Width < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold
– BB Bandwidth: 0.01456239 (Dynamic Bandwidth: 0.02173715)
– Condition Met: True
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): Close 1.0 AND Breakout Confirmation
– Close: 4749.59000000
– KC Lower Band: 4679.13780676
– Breakout Filter (Baseline 3x ATR): 63.15000000
– KC Lower Band – Breakout Filter: 4679.13780676 – 63.15000000 = 4615.98780676
– VO: 1.28467844
– Condition Met: False (Close > KC Lower Band – Breakout Filter)
- Volume – Price Breakout of Previous High / Low
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): Close 0.1%
– Close: 4749.59000000
– Previous 20-period Low: Not provided, but we can infer it is lower than the current close.
– Increased Volume: False (Spike > 1.5x average: False)
– Breakout Magnitude: 0.26%
– Condition Met: False (Increased Volume not met)
- DMI Momentum Crossover Start
– Prerequisite: 22.38870982 ≤ ADX(14) < 30.38870982
– Condition Met: True
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): -DI(14) crosses above +DI(14) (Death Cross)
– +DI(14): 24.62167523
– -DI(14): 15.17655105
– Condition Met: False (No Death Cross)
Output:
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal: None
– Buy Signal: None
– Watch Signal: Yes
- Default Output: Maintain Watch
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition and Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
– Candlestick Patterns: Look for bearish reversal patterns (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing).
– Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider 15-20 bar patterns and recent support/resistance levels.
– Confluence of Divergences: Check for RSI and MACD divergences.
Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Recent Bars: No clear bearish reversal patterns observed.
- Support/Resistance:
– Pivot Points:
– R1: 4754.97000000
– PP: 4686.68000000
– S1: 4649.95000000
– Key Levels:
– 20-period Low: Below this level, indicating potential bearish continuation.
- RSI and MACD:
– RSI(14): 66.26436918 (Overbought threshold: 70)
– MACD Histogram: 7.64886674 (Above Signal Line, no divergence)
High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- Bearish Signal: Price below 20-period Low, but no strong confirmation from volume or candlestick patterns.
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): No clear signals, maintain watch.
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Potential bearish signal, but not high confidence.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Watch Signal (Score: 0)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Bearish Signal (Score: -1)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (0 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -0.4
- Threshold-Based Action:
– Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX: 24.56620002 (Normal Ranging)
- ATR: 21.05000000
- Time Factor (UTC+8 Beijing Time): 1.0 (Assuming during European Main session)
- Volatility Factor: 1.0 (Normal Volatility)
- Base Multiplier: 3.0 × ATR = 3.0 × 21.05000000 = 63.15000000
- Distance to Key Level (S1): 4749.59000000 – 4649.95000000 = 99.64000000
- Stop-Loss Price: max(63.15000000, 1.4 × 99.64000000) = max(63.15000000, 139.50) = 139.50
- Adjusted Stop-Loss Price: 4749.59000000 + 139.50 = 4889.09000000
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.3:1
- Swing Point: 4649.95000000 (S1)
- Buffer: 0.5 × ATR = 0.5 × 21.05000000 = 10.52500000
- Take-Profit Price: 4649.95000000 – 10.52500000 = 4639.42500000
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4749.59 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -4 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4889.09 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4639.43 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) with 75% confidence.
- Quantitative Analysis: No clear sell or buy signals from specified models, maintaining watch.
- Autonomous Analysis: Potential bearish signal, but not high confidence.
- Final Decision: Plan Short with a stop-loss at 4889.09 and take-profit at 4639.43.
- Signal Strength: -4 (Moderate bearish signal).