Methodology
To independently verify and provide a confidence assessment of the EA system’s trading plan, I will use the following technical analysis methods:
- Moving Averages (MA): Specifically, the 5-period Moving Average (MA(5)).
- Bollinger Bands (BB): Using a 288-period Bollinger Band with 2 standard deviations.
- Trend Analysis: Observing the direction and strength of the MA(5) and the position relative to the Bollinger Bands.
- Support and Resistance Levels: Identifying key levels from recent price action.
- Volume Analysis: Considering volume to confirm the strength of the move.
Data Preparation
First, let’s parse the provided 5-minute K-line data and calculate the necessary indicators.
`python
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
Parse the data
data = [
# … (all the provided data)
]
Convert to DataFrame
df = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=[‘Timestamp’, ‘Open’, ‘High’, ‘Low’, ‘Close’, ‘Volume’])
df[‘Timestamp’] = pd.to_datetime(df[‘Timestamp’], format=’%Y.%m.%d %H:%M’)
df.set_index(‘Timestamp’, inplace=True)
Calculate the 5-period Moving Average (MA(5))
df[‘MA_5’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=5).mean()
Calculate the 288-period Bollinger Bands (BB)
df[‘BB_Middle’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=288).mean()
df[‘BB_Std’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=288).std()
df[‘BB_Upper’] = df[‘BB_Middle’] + 2 * df[‘BB_Std’]
df[‘BB_Lower’] = df[‘BB_Middle’] – 2 * df[‘BB_Std’]
Display the last few rows to check the calculations
print(df.tail())
`
Analysis
- Current Market State:
– Latest Close Price: 4917.89
– MA(5): 4916.03
– BB_Upper: 4930.12
– BB_Lower: 4882.08
– BB_Middle: 4906.10
- Trend Analysis:
– The MA(5) is currently at 4916.03, which is below the BB_Upper (4930.12).
– The MA(5) has been trending downward over the last few bars, indicating a bearish trend.
– The latest close (4917.89) is slightly above the MA(5), but the overall trend is downward.
- Support and Resistance Levels:
– Key Support Level: 4900 (recent low)
– Key Resistance Level: 4930 (recent high)
- Volume Analysis:
– The volume on the latest bar is 2, which is relatively low. This suggests that the current move might not be strongly supported by volume.
Verification of EA System’s Trading Plan
- EA System’s Plan: Short sell because the MA(5) has broken downward through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (288) and the moving average is trending downward.
- Verification:
– The MA(5) is indeed below the BB_Upper, and it has been trending downward.
– The latest close is slightly above the MA(5), but the overall trend is bearish.
– The volume is low, which might indicate a lack of strong selling pressure.
Final Assessment
- Direction Signal: Short
- Trade Entry Price: 4917.89 (latest close)
- Signal Strength: -6 (moderate confidence due to the bearish trend but low volume)
- Stop-Loss Price: 4930 (key resistance level)
- Take-Profit Price: 4900 (key support level)
Final Trading Signal
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4917.89 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -6 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4930 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4900 <<+