XAUUSD价格趋势分析 (2026-02-04 02:30:08)

Methodology

To independently verify and provide a confidence assessment of the EA system’s trading plan, I will use the following technical analysis methods:

  1. Moving Averages (MA): Calculate the 5-period Moving Average (MA(5)) and the 288-period Bollinger Bands (BB(288)).
  2. Bollinger Bands (BB): Calculate the 288-period Bollinger Bands to identify the upper and lower bands.
  3. Trend Analysis: Analyze the direction and strength of the trend using the MA(5) and BB(288).
  4. Support and Resistance Levels: Identify key support and resistance levels based on recent price action.
  5. Market Session Considerations: Consider the specific characteristics of the current market session (e.g., Asian, London, New York).

Data Preparation

First, let’s parse the provided data and calculate the necessary indicators.

#### Parsing the Data

The data is in the format: Timestamp, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume.

`python

import pandas as pd

Parse the data

data = [

# … (all the data points)

]

df = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=[‘Timestamp’, ‘Open’, ‘High’, ‘Low’, ‘Close’, ‘Volume’])

df[‘Timestamp’] = pd.to_datetime(df[‘Timestamp’], format=’%Y.%m.%d %H:%M’)

df.set_index(‘Timestamp’, inplace=True)

Convert prices to float

df[[‘Open’, ‘High’, ‘Low’, ‘Close’]] = df[[‘Open’, ‘High’, ‘Low’, ‘Close’]].astype(float)

`

#### Calculating Indicators

  1. 5-Period Moving Average (MA(5)):

`python

df[‘MA_5’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=5).mean()

`

  1. 288-Period Bollinger Bands (BB(288)):

`python

window = 288

df[‘MA_288’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=window).mean()

df[‘STD_288’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=window).std()

df[‘BB_Upper’] = df[‘MA_288’] + 2 * df[‘STD_288’]

df[‘BB_Lower’] = df[‘MA_288’] – 2 * df[‘STD_288’]

`

Trend Analysis

We need to check if the MA(5) has broken downward through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB(288)) and if the moving average is trending downward.

`python

Check if MA(5) has broken downward through the upper band of BB(288)

df[‘MA_5_Below_BB_Upper’] = (df[‘MA_5’] = df[‘BB_Upper’].shift(1))

Check if the MA(5) is trending downward

df[‘MA_5_Trending_Down’] = df[‘MA_5’] < df['MA_5'].shift(1)

`

Market Session Considerations
  • Current Time: The latest timestamp in the data is 2026-02-04 02:25.
  • Session: This falls within the low liquidity period (02:00-06:00 UTC+8), where false breakouts are common and require confirmation.

Support and Resistance Levels
  • Key Support Level: Use the recent low, which is around 4900.
  • Key Resistance Level: Use the recent high, which is around 4970.

Final Analysis

Let’s check the conditions for the latest candlestick:

`python

latest_candle = df.iloc[-1]

previous_candle = df.iloc[-2]

Check if MA(5) has broken downward through the upper band of BB(288)

ma_5_below_bb_upper = latest_candle[‘MA_5_Below_BB_Upper’]

Check if the MA(5) is trending downward

ma_5_trending_down = latest_candle[‘MA_5_Trending_Down’]

Latest close price

latest_close = latest_candle[‘Close’]

Key support and resistance levels

key_support = 4900

key_resistance = 4970

Output the final signal

if ma_5_below_bb_upper and ma_5_trending_down:

# Plan Short

trade_entry_price = latest_close

signal_strength = -5 # Moderate confidence

stop_loss_price = key_resistance

take_profit_price = key_support

print(f"Direction signal: ShortnTrade entry price: >>> {trade_entry_price} <<<nSignal Strength: <span class="signal-strength"> {signal_strength} </span>=nStop-Loss price: <span class="resistance"> {stop_loss_price} </span> nTake-Profit price: <span class="support"> {take_profit_price} </span>")

else:

# Maintain Watch

print(f"Direction signal: WatchnLatest Close: >>> {latest_close} <<<nSignal Strength: <span class="signal-strength"> 0 </span>=nSupport level: <span class="support"> {key_support} </span>nResistance level: <span class="resistance"> {key_resistance} </span>")

`

Final Trading Signal

Based on the analysis, the MA(5) has not broken downward through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands (BB(288)), and the trend is not clearly downward. Therefore, the signal is to maintain watch.

`plaintext

Direction signal: Watch

Latest Close: >>> 4918.46 <<<

Signal Strength: =>> 0 <=<

Support level: <span class="support"> 4900 </span>

Resistance level: ->> 4970 <-<-

`

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