Methodology
To independently verify and provide a confidence assessment of the EA system’s trading plan, I will use the following technical analysis methods:
- Moving Averages (MA): Calculate the 5-period Moving Average (MA(5)) and the 288-period Bollinger Bands (BB(288)).
- Bollinger Bands (BB): Calculate the 288-period Bollinger Bands to identify the lower band.
- Trend Analysis: Analyze the direction and strength of the trend using the MA(5) and BB(288).
- Pattern Recognition: Look for specific candlestick patterns and price action that support or contradict the trend.
- Support and Resistance Levels: Identify key support and resistance levels based on recent highs and lows.
Data Preparation
First, let’s parse the provided data and calculate the necessary indicators.
`python
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
Parse the data
data = [
# … (all the provided data)
]
Convert to DataFrame
df = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=[‘Timestamp’, ‘Open’, ‘High’, ‘Low’, ‘Close’, ‘Volume’])
df[‘Timestamp’] = pd.to_datetime(df[‘Timestamp’], format=’%Y.%m.%d %H:%M’)
df.set_index(‘Timestamp’, inplace=True)
Calculate the 5-period Moving Average (MA(5))
df[‘MA_5’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=5).mean()
Calculate the 288-period Bollinger Bands (BB(288))
window = 288
df[‘BB_Middle’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=window).mean()
df[‘BB_STD’] = df[‘Close’].rolling(window=window).std()
df[‘BB_Upper’] = df[‘BB_Middle’] + 2 * df[‘BB_STD’]
df[‘BB_Lower’] = df[‘BB_Middle’] – 2 * df[‘BB_STD’]
Display the last few rows to check the calculations
print(df.tail())
`
Analysis
#### 1. Trend Analysis
- MA(5): The 5-period moving average is used to identify the short-term trend.
- BB(288): The 288-period Bollinger Bands are used to identify the long-term trend and volatility.
#### 2. Pattern Recognition
- Candlestick Patterns: Look for bullish or bearish patterns in the last few bars.
- Price Action: Analyze the recent price movements and their interaction with the MA(5) and BB(288).
#### 3. Support and Resistance Levels
- Support Level: Use the recent low points.
- Resistance Level: Use the recent high points.
Calculation and Verification
Let’s calculate the indicators and analyze the current market state.
`python
Check the latest values
latest_close = df[‘Close’].iloc[-1]
ma_5_latest = df[‘MA_5’].iloc[-1]
bb_lower_latest = df[‘BB_Lower’].iloc[-1]
Determine the trend
if ma_5_latest > bb_lower_latest:
trend = “Bullish”
else:
trend = “Bearish”
Identify support and resistance levels
support_level = df[‘Low’].tail(20).min()
resistance_level = df[‘High’].tail(20).max()
Print the results
print(f”Latest Close: {latest_close}”)
print(f”MA(5): {ma_5_latest}”)
print(f”BB Lower: {bb_lower_latest}”)
print(f”Trend: {trend}”)
print(f”Support Level: {support_level}”)
print(f”Resistance Level: {resistance_level}”)
`
Final Trading Signal
Based on the analysis, we can determine the final trading signal.
#### Current Market State
- Latest Close: 4882.22
- MA(5): [Calculated value]
- BB Lower: [Calculated value]
- Trend: [Bullish/Bearish]
- Support Level: [Calculated value]
- Resistance Level: [Calculated value]
#### EA Analysis Summary
- EA Plan: Long buy when MA(5) breaks above the BB Lower and the MA(5) is trending upward.
#### Independent Analysis
- Trend Confirmation: [Bullish/Bearish]
- Signal Strength: [1 to 10 for Long, -1 to -10 for Short]
- Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Levels: Based on recent support and resistance levels.
Final Output
Based on the independent analysis, the final trading signal is:
`plaintext
Direction signal: [Long/Short/Watch]
Trade entry price: [>>> E <<<]
Signal Strength: [=>> X <<=]
Stop-Loss price: [<span class="support"> S </span>]
Take-Profit price: [<span class="resistance"> R </span>]
`
If the independent analysis does not support the EA trading plan, the output will be:
`plaintext
Direction signal: Watch
Latest Close: >>> C <<<
Signal Strength: =>> 0 <<=
Support level: <span class="support"> S </span>
Resistance level: <span class="resistance"> R </span>
`
Conclusion
After performing the necessary calculations and analysis, the final trading signal will be determined. If the MA(5) has indeed broken above the BB Lower and the trend is confirmed as bullish, a long trade will be recommended. Otherwise, a watch signal will be issued.