XAUUSD价格趋势分析 (2026-03-18 09:02:06)

1. Macro & Bias

  • Trend Analysis:

– M5: BEAR | Reason: Bearish candle with a lower close.

– H1: BEAR | Reason: Bearish candle with a lower close.

– H4: BEAR | Reason: Bearish candle with a lower close.

  • Alignment Check:

– Alignment=Full | Logic: H4(BEAR) vs H1(BEAR) vs M5(BEAR)

  • Major Bias Definition:

– Major_Bias = BEAR

  • Key Levels:

– PP = (5003.72 + 4998.74 + 5002.66) / 3.0 = 5001.71

– R1 = 2.0 * 5001.71 – 4998.74 = 5004.68

– S1 = 2.0 * 5001.71 – 5003.72 = 5000.70

– R2 = 5001.71 + (5003.72 – 4998.74) = 5006.69

– S2 = 5001.71 – (5003.72 – 4998.74) = 4997.73

– R3 = 5003.72 + 2.0 * (5001.71 – 4998.74) = 5008.69

– S3 = 4998.74 – 2.0 * (5003.72 – 5001.71) = 4995.76

2. M5-First Engine

  • Phase 1: Signal Scan

– Key Level Calculation:

– Dist_R1 = |5005.44 – 5004.68| = 0.76

– Dist_S1 = |5005.44 – 5000.70| = 4.74

– Min(Dist_R1, Dist_S1) = 0.76 <= $2.00

– Key = Nearest(Pivot_R1, Pivot_S1) = 5004.68

– Pre-Filter:

– Filter 1: M5_Body_Abs = 0.37 > 0.15 * ATR_M5 = 0.5055 (Pass)

– Filter 2: Vol_Ratio = 1.07 >= 0.8 (Pass)

– Filter 3: |5005.44 – 5004.68| = 0.76 <= 2.5 * ATR_M5 = 8.425 (Pass)

– ROUTE 2: IF Major_Bias == BEAR

– Condition Set A (Breakout – Full Alignment):

– C1: 5005.44 < (5004.68 – 16.98 * 0.1) = 5002.982 (Fail)

– C2: (5005.44 < 5005.07) AND (2.55 < 0.6 * 0.37) (Fail)

– Condition Set B (Rejection – Pullback/Retracement):

– C1: 5007.99 >= 5004.68 AND 5005.44 < 5004.68 (Fail)

– C2: (5005.44 < 5005.07) AND (2.55 < 0.5 * 0.37) (Fail)

– Default: Signal_Dir = NONE, Signal_Type = None

  • Phase 2: Quality Scoring

– Trigger: Signal_Dir = NONE (Skip)

  • Phase 3: Decision Gate

– Trigger: Signal_Dir = NONE (Skip)

3. Execution & Risk Management

– Trigger: Status = WAIT (Skip)

4. Final Signal
  • Direction Signal: NEUTRAL / WAIT
  • Signal Strength: =>> 0 <<=
  • Last Close (M5): >>> 5005.44 <<<
  • Support (M5): +>> 5000.70 <<+
  • Resistance (M5): ->> 5004.68 <<-

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