XAUUSD价格趋势分析 (2026-03-20 09:00:23)

1. Macro & Bias

  • Key Levels (H1 Pivot Points):

– Pivot_R3: 4662.89

– Pivot_R2: 4655.24

– Pivot_R1: 4649.32

– Pivot_PP: 4641.67

– Pivot_S1: 4635.75

– Pivot_S2: 4628.10

– Pivot_S3: 4622.18

  • Trend Analysis:

M5: BULL | Reason: M5_Close > M5_Open and M5_Wick_Lower < 0.31.

H1: BULL | Reason: H1_Close > H1_Open and H1_Wick_Lower < 0.21.

H4: BULL | Reason: H4_Body_Abs > 40.02 and H4_Prev_C > PP_h1.

  • Alignment Check:

– Alignment: Full | Logic: H4(BULL) vs H1(BULL) vs M5(BULL).

  • Major Bias Definition:

– Major_Bias: BULL | Reason: H4_Tag is BULL and not NEUTRAL.

2. M5-First Engine

  • Phase 1: Signal Scan

Key Level:

– Dist_R1 = 7.63, Dist_S1 = 21.20

– Min(Dist_R1, Dist_S1) <= 5.52: Key = Nearest(Pivot_R1, Pivot_S1) = 4649.32

– Output: Key = 4649.32 | Reason: Nearest to M5_Close

Pre-Filter:

– Filter 1: M5_Body_Abs = 0.51 > 1.09 (Pass)

– Filter 2: Vol_Ratio = 1.01 >= 0.8 (Pass)

– Filter 3: |M5_Close – Key| = |4656.95 – 4649.32| = 7.63 <= 18.20 (Pass)

ROUTE 1: Major_Bias != BEAR (BULL)

– Condition Set A (Breakout – Full Alignment):

– C1: M5_Close > (Key + 5.52) = 4654.84 (Pass)

– C2: M5_Close > M5_Open and M5_Wick_Lower < 0.31 (Pass)

– Signal_Dir = BULL, Signal_Type = Breakout

  • Phase 2: Quality Scoring

Base Components:

– Momentum_Score: min(1.0, |RSI_M5 – 50| / 25) = min(1.0, |56.11 – 50| / 25) = 0.24

– Volume_Score: min(1.0, max(0, (Vol_Ratio – 1.0) / 0.5)) = min(1.0, max(0, (1.01 – 1.0) / 0.5)) = 0.02

Context Multiplier (Ctx_Mod):

– Full Confluence -> +1.5

Divergence Check (Div_Mod):

– Gap = RSI_M5 – RSI_Prev_Swing_Low = 56.11 – 49.16 = 6.95

– Strong Div (Gap >= 5.0) -> +1.5

Extreme Action Bonus (Action_Bonus):

– Conditions Not Met -> +0.0

Target Confidence Score (Target_Score):

– Distance_R2 = 1.71

– Dist_Val = max(0.0, 1.0 – (Distance_R2 / (276.08))) = 0.99

– Momentum_Val = min(1.0, Volume_Score + (Momentum_Score 0.5)) = min(1.0, 0.02 + (0.24 0.5)) = 0.14

– Target_Score = (Dist_Val + Momentum_Val) / 2.0 = (0.99 + 0.14) / 2.0 = 0.565

Calculation:

– Raw_Score = (Momentum_Score + Volume_Score) + Ctx_Mod + Div_Mod + Action_Bonus = (0.24 + 0.02) + 1.5 + 1.5 + 0.0 = 3.26

– Final_Score = Raw_Score + Target_Score = 3.26 + 0.565 = 3.825

  • Phase 3: Decision Gate

Hard Veto Checks:

– Exhaustion: M5_Wick_Ratio = 5.35 > 0.85 (Fail)

– Fakeout: M5_Close is not opposite to Signal_Dir relative to Key by > 1.10 (Pass)

– Force Decision = WAIT

Dynamic Thresholds:

– Full Confluence -> 2.5

– Final_Score = 3.825 >= 2.5 (Pass)

Final Decision Logic:

– Hard Veto Triggered -> FORCE_WAIT

Output:

– Status: WAIT | Reason: Exhaustion Veto

3. Execution & Risk Management

  • Trigger:

– Status = WAIT, so no execution.

4. Final Signal

  • Direction Signal: NEUTRAL / WAIT
  • Signal Strength: =>> 0 <<=
  • Last Close (M5): >>> 4656.95 <<<
  • Support (M5): +>> 4635.75 <<+
  • Resistance (M5): ->> 4649.32 <<-

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