XAUUSD价格趋势分析 (2026-04-14 01:45:23)

Macro & Bias
  • Key Levels (H1 Pivot Points):

– Pivot_R3: 4786.59

– Pivot_R2: 4766.40

– Pivot_R1: 4749.69

– Pivot_PP: 4729.50

– Pivot_S1: 4712.79

– Pivot_S2: 4692.60

– Pivot_S3: 4675.89

  • Trend Analysis:

– H4_Tag: NEUTRAL

– H1_Tag: BULL

– M5_Tag: BULL

– Alignment_Type: Retracement

– Major_Bias: BULL

M5-First Engine
  • Phase 1: Signal Verification

– Signal_Dir: BULL

– Signal_Type: REVERSAL

– Signal_Strength: 1.55

– Key_Level: 4729.50

  • Phase 2: Quality Scoring

Momentum_Score: 0.75 (RSI: 65.10, Dir: BULL)

Volume_Score: 0.80 (Vol_Ratio: 0.80)

Ctx_Mod: 0.50 (Tier: 3, Details: Retracement)

Div_Mod: 0.00 (Gap: 12.01, Confirmed: NO)

Action_Bonus: 0.00 (Conditions: 0)

Target_Score:

– Dist_Val: 0.48 (Distance_R2: 20.24)

– Momentum_Val: 0.75

– Target_Score: 0.615

Raw_Score: 2.05 (Mom: 0.75 + Vol: 0.80 + Ctx: 0.50 + Div: 0.00 + Act: 0.00)

Final_Score: 2.665 (Raw: 2.05 + Target: 0.615)

  • Quality Gate:

– Final_Score: 2.665 (>= 0.0, proceed to Phase 3)

  • Phase 3: Decision Gate

Hard Veto Checks:

– Veto 1: Exhaustion (Pin Bar Exemption): NO

– Veto 2: Fakeout: NO

– Veto 3: Volume Spike with Weak Body: NO

Dynamic Thresholds:

– Base_Threshold: 1.4 (Retracement)

– Vol_Adj: 0.00 ((19.34 / 24.02 – 1.0) * 0.5, clamped between -0.3 and +0.3)

– threshold_val: 1.40 (Base: 1.40 + Adj: 0.00)

Final Decision Logic:

– Final_Score: 2.665 >= threshold_val: 1.40

– Status: EXECUTE

– Reason: Score 2.665 vs Thresh 1.40 (Adj: 0.00) | No Veto | No NegScore

  • Signal Strength Quantification:

– SSR: (2.665 – 1.40) / 1.40 = 0.9036

– Strength_Int: 9

– Strength_Val: 9 (SSR: 0.9036%)

Execution & Risk Management
  • Order Execution:

– Entry: 4746.16

– Minimum Stop Distance: 20.00

– Dynamic_Extension: (2.665 – 1.40) * 0.8 = 1.012

Stop-Loss (Bull):

– Nearest Support: 4712.79 (Pivot_S1)

– Tentative SL: 4712.79 – 1.93 = 4710.86

– SL_Distance: 4746.16 – 4710.86 = 35.30 (> 20.00, valid)

– Final_SL: 4710.86

Take-Profit (Bull):

– Base Target (BT): 4749.69 (Pivot_R1)

– Tentative TP: 4749.69 – 1.93 = 4747.76

– Extended_TP: 4766.40 – 1.93 = 4764.47 (Aim for Pivot_R2)

– TP_Choice: 4764.47 (Extended)

– Final_TP: 4764.47 + (1.93 * 1.012) = 4766.40 (Dynamic: YES, Extended: YES)

Final Signal
  • Direction Signal: BULL
  • Signal Strength: 9
  • Entry Price: 4746.16
  • Stop Loss: 4710.86
  • Take Profit: 4766.40

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