XAUUSD价格趋势分析 (2026-04-14 21:00:17)

Key Levels (H1 Pivot Points)
  • Pivot_R3: 4798.99
  • Pivot_R2: 4790.94
  • Pivot_R1: 4782.91
  • Pivot_PP: 4774.86
  • Pivot_S1: 4766.83
  • Pivot_S2: 4758.78
  • Pivot_S3: 4750.75

Trend Analysis
  • H4_Tag: BULL
  • H1_Tag: BULL
  • M5_Tag: BEAR
  • Alignment_Type: Pullback
  • Major_Bias: BULL

M5-First Engine
  • Signal_Dir: BEAR
  • Signal_Type: REVERSAL
  • Signal_Strength: 2.36
  • Key_Level: 4774.86

#### Phase 2: Quality Scoring

  • Momentum_Score: 0.52 (RSI: 39.95, Dir: BEAR)
  • Volume_Score: 0.16 (Vol_Ratio: 1.08)
  • Ctx_Mod: 1.0 (Tier: 2, Details: Pullback)
  • Div_Mod: -1.0 (Gap: -3.11, Confirmed: False)
  • Action_Bonus: 0.0 (Conditions: 0)

  • Target_Score:

Dist_Val: 0.94 (Distance_S2: 5.69)

Momentum_Val: 0.34

Target_Score: 0.64 (Dist: 0.94, Mom: 0.34)

  • Raw_Score: 0.68 (Mom: 0.52 + Vol: 0.16 + Ctx: 1.0 + Div: -1.0 + Act: 0.0)
  • Final_Score: 1.32 (Raw: 0.68 + Target: 0.64)

#### Phase 3: Decision Gate

  • Threshold Calculation:

Base_Threshold: 1.2 (Pullback)

Vol_Adj: 0.0 ((18.14 / 18.66 – 1.0) * 0.5, clamped between -0.3 and +0.3)

threshold_val: 1.2 (Base: 1.2 + Adj: 0.0)

  • Hard Veto Checks:

Veto 1. Exhaustion: No (Not a pin bar)

Veto 2. Fakeout: No (M5_Close is not opposite to Signal_Dir relative to Key by > 0.91)

Veto 3. Volume Spike with Weak Body: No (Vol_Ratio (0.5 * ATR_M5))

  • Final Decision Logic:

Final_Score: 1.32

threshold_val: 1.2

Status: EXECUTE (Final_Score >= threshold_val)

Reason: Score 1.32 vs Thresh 1.2 (Adj: 0.0) | Veto None | NegScore None

  • Signal Strength Quantification:

SSR: 0.10

Strength_Int: 2

Strength_Val: -2 (SSR: 0.10%)

Execution & Risk Management
  • Entry: 4764.47
  • Stop-Loss (SL): 4784.47 (Nearest resistance: Pivot_R1 = 4782.91, SL = 4782.91 + 1.81, SL_Distance = 20.00)
  • Take-Profit (TP):

Base Target (BT): 4766.83 (Nearest support: Pivot_S1)

Tentative TP: 4766.83 – 1.81 = 4765.02

Dynamic_Extension: (1.32 – 1.2) * 0.8 = 0.096

Final_TP: 4765.02 – (1.81 * 0.096) = 4763.28 (Extended: NO, Dynamic: YES)

Final Signal
  • Direction Signal: BEAR
  • Signal Strength: =>> -2 <<=
  • Entry Price: >>> 4764.47 <<<
  • Stop Loss: ->> 4784.47 <<-
  • Take Profit: +>> 4763.28 <<+

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