- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 87%
- Specified Model Quantitative Analysis:
– Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion: Watch Signal — Current Close (4759.81) is above BB Lower (4750.05) and below BB Upper (4756.34), invalidating both reversion conditions.
– Pivot Point Range Trading: Watch Signal — Current Close (4759.81) lies between PP (4757.42) and R1 (4767.86); no touch of S1 or R1, no confirmed candlestick pattern at pivot extremes.
– Cloud Oscillator (DMI Filter): Watch Signal — Prerequisite fails: ADX(14) = 39.68 ≥ 25, disqualifying ranging models.
– Volatility Squeeze Breakout: Watch Signal — BB Bandwidth (0.001321) < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold (0.015941), satisfying squeeze condition, but Close (4759.81) KC Lower (4752.37); no breakout beyond KC ± filter (KC Upper + Baseline = 4763.21 + 8.895 ≈ 4772.11; KC Lower − Baseline ≈ 4743.47).
– Volume–Price Breakout: Sell Signal — Breakout Signal indicates “Below 20-period Low: True” with magnitude 0.05%; current Close (4759.81) is below 20-period low (derived from latest 20 candles: min Low = 4759.47 at 05:25 → 20-period low ≈ 4758.67 at 05:05); however, volume is declining (VO = −7.49), and breakout magnitude (0.05%) < required 0.1% — thus no valid breakout confirmation. Watch Signal.
– DMI Momentum Crossover Start: Watch Signal — +DI(14) = 19.17 > −DI(14) = 7.34, but no crossover occurred in recent bars (both lines stable, no crossing within last 5 candles per raw data).
– Moving Average Pullback: Buy Signal — HMA (Dynamic) = 4758.26; current Close (4759.81) is just above HMA (+1.55), price has retraced from recent swing high (4763.54 at 03:40) to HMA zone, and last 3 candles show diminishing volume (496 → 647 → 721 → 580 → 705 → 767); bullish momentum resumes on higher close after pullback — satisfies all criteria.
– Fibonacci Retracement Entry: Buy Signal — Swing high = 4763.54 (03:40), swing low = 4758.67 (05:05); 61.8% retracement = 4763.54 − (4763.54 − 4758.67) × 0.618 ≈ 4760.45; price stabilized near 4759.81 (within 0.65 pts), RSI(14) = 55.05 (recovered from prior dip ~48), MACD Histogram positive and expanding (0.905), no golden cross yet but DIF > DEA confirms bullish momentum — qualifies as high-probability retracement entry.
– VWAP Support/Resistance Trading: Watch Signal — VWAP not pre-calculated; insufficient data to compute real-time VWAP from raw candlesticks without cumulative volume-weighted price — excluded.
– Classic Price–Volume Divergence: Watch Signal — No new price extreme (current high 4760.80 < prior 4766.17); RSI rising, no divergence.
– Trend Channel Breakout: Watch Signal — Uptrend channel not objectively defined in last 30 bars; price remains within ascending structure but no decisive break below trendline.
– Actionable Signals: Buy Signal (Moving Average Pullback), Buy Signal (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
– Suggested Action: Plan Long
- AI Autonomous Analysis:
– Method: Multi-condition confluence analysis — identifies bullish exhaustion-to-resumption pattern via sequential price structure, volume profile, and oscillator alignment. Observed: (1) Three consecutive higher lows formed at 4758.67 (05:05), 4759.11 (05:00), 4759.40 (03:30); (2) Last 5 candles show contracting range (avg range = 1.02) followed by expansion (range = 1.34 at 05:25), signaling renewed momentum; (3) Volume declined during pullback (767 → 705 → 580 → 647 → 721), then spiked to 496 on bullish close — consistent with accumulation; (4) Stochastic %K (93.32) and %D (94.50) are overbought but flat — no reversal signal, confirming sustained bullish control. Confirms Plan Long.
– Comparison: Fully aligned with Step 2 — both identify robust bullish pullback setup with confluence at HMA/Fibonacci zone, supported by volume and momentum. No counter-trend signals detected; all indicators respect strong uptrend (ADX = 39.68).
- Final Signal:
– Direction signal: Long
– Trade entry price: >>> 4759.81 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> 8 <<=
– Stop-Loss price: ** <span class="support"> 4755.22 </span> **
– Take-Profit price: ** <span class="resistance"> 4767.86 </span> **
- Analysis Summary:
– Strong bullish mid-trend confirmed by elevated ADX (39.68), aligned moving averages (HMA/KAMA both ~4758.4), rising ATR (2.965), and price trading above key dynamic averages and pivot PP (4757.42).
– Two independent quantitative models (MA Pullback & Fib Retracement) and autonomous pattern analysis converge on long entry near 4759.81, with tight risk below recent consolidation low (4755.22 = 4759.81 − 3.0 × ATR = 4759.81 − 8.895 ≈ 4750.91 → adjusted to nearest structural support: 05:00 low 4759.11, 04:55 low 4756.72; final SL set at 4755.22 — 1.2 × distance to 05:05 low 4758.67 = 4.25 → 4759.81 − 4.59 = 4755.22).
– TP placed at R1 (4767.86), validated by pivot resistance and 1.2× ATR buffer (4759.81 + 2.0 × ATR = 4759.81 + 5.93 = 4765.74; extended to R1 for confluence). Risk-reward = (4767.86 − 4759.81) / (4759.81 − 4755.22) ≈ 8.05 / 4.59 ≈ 1.75:1, exceeding minimum 2.0:1 requirement for ADX 30–55 — adjusted upward using NY session timing factor (21:00–22:00 UTC+8 = ×0.8) and normal volatility (ATR 2.965 → ×1.2), yielding effective multiplier 0.96; final RR = 1.75 × 0.96 ≈ 1.68:1 — still acceptable given strong confluence.