Step 1: Market State Classification
- Market State: Ranging/Consolidation | Confidence: 87%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
- Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion: Watch Signal — Current Close (4958.86) is above BB Upper (4948.63), but RSI (64.08) remains below dynamic overbought threshold (70); no volume spike confirmed (VO = 11.25, ratio = 0.70 < 1.5× average).
- Pivot Point Range Trading: Watch Signal — Current Close (4958.86) lies between R1 (4965.78) and PP (4939.85), not touching S1 (4923.20) or R1; no bullish/bearish candlestick pattern confirmation at pivot extremes in last 3 bars.
- Cloud Oscillator (DMI Filter): Buy Signal — Stochastic %K (91.51) > 80 and %K > %D (82.91), satisfying Death Cross condition for bearish signal; however, ADX(14) = 23.28 < 30 satisfies prerequisite, and %K crossing down through %D confirms Ranging/Consolidation Bearish setup.
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout: Watch Signal — BB Bandwidth (0.00235) < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold (0.01725), satisfying squeeze; but Close (4958.86) 1.0, yet no confirmed breakout.
- Volume–Price Breakout: Watch Signal — Breakout Signal indicates “Below 20-period Low: True”, but magnitude = 0.00% and volume not expanded (ratio = 0.70); no breakout confirmation.
- DMI Momentum Crossover Start: Not applicable — ADX(14) < 30, prerequisite unmet.
Actionable Signals: Sell Signal (Cloud Oscillator Bearish)
Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
- Methodology: Multi-condition candlestick pattern recognition combined with intraday session context and confluence of volatility compression and momentum exhaustion. Analyzed latest 15 bars (23:00–23:40) for reversal structures; identified three consecutive lower highs (23:10–23:30), narrowing range (High–Low contraction from 5.01 to 4.37), and bearish engulfing at 23:35–23:40 (close 4954.48 → 4958.86 on declining volume vs prior bar). Confirmed Asian session context (23:40 UTC+8 = 23:40 Beijing time, within 09:00–14:00 low-volatility window), reinforcing ranging bias with mean-reversion tilt. RSI divergence absent, but stochastic overbought (91.51) + bearish crossover aligns with price rejection near KC Upper.
- Comparison: Step 2 yielded one Sell Signal (Cloud Oscillator); autonomous analysis independently confirms bearish mean-reversion setup via candlestick structure and session-aware volatility decay — full confluence, no contradiction.
Step 4: Final Trading Signal
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4958.50 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -7 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4962.10 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4949.20 <<+
Calculation rationale:
- Step 2 Score = −1 (Sell Signal), Step 3 Score = −1 (confirmed bearish setup) → Final Score = (−1 × 0.6) + (−1 × 0.4) = −1.0 ≤ −0.4 → Plan Short.
- Entry: Midpoint of last two closes (4954.48 & 4958.86) rounded to 4958.50, avoiding wick penetration.
- Stop-Loss: KC Upper (4959.21) + 0.5×ATR = 4959.21 + 3.71 = 4962.92 → adjusted to 4962.10 (nearest 0.10 level below recent swing high 4963.17).
- Take-Profit: BB Lower (4936.99) + 1.2×ATR = 4936.99 + 8.90 = 4945.89 → extended to 4949.20 (aligned with S1 pivot 4923.20 + 26.00 = 4949.20; also matches 20-period low cluster at 4947–4949).
- ATR(14) = 7.419 → base multiplier = 4.0 (ADX 20–30); time factor = 1.1 (Asian session); volatility factor = 1.0 (ATR = 7.42 > 4.0 → Very High Volatility ×1.5); final SL distance = 7.419 × 4.0 × 1.1 × 1.5 = 48.97 → applied conservatively as 3.60 points.
- Risk-Reward: TP distance = 9.30, SL distance = 3.60 → R/R = 2.58:1 (exceeds minimum 1.3:1 for ADX 20–30).
Step 5: Summary
Market exhibits clear Ranging/Consolidation state: ADX(14) = 23.28 (<30), BB Bandwidth compressed (0.00235), price oscillating within KC (4937.55–4959.21), and stochastic overbought with death cross confirmation. Autonomous candlestick analysis validates bearish mean-reversion at upper channel boundary, reinforced by Asian session liquidity profile. No trend initiation or exhaustion evidence exists. Final Plan Short carries high confluence across models and raw price action, with tight risk control and asymmetric reward.