- Market State: Trend Exhaustion (Bearish) | Confidence: 82%
- Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
– Volatility Squeeze Breakout: Watch Signal — BB Bandwidth (0.001545) < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold (0.016911), but Close (5063.21) KC Lower (5058.50); no breakout beyond filter (KC Lower − Baseline = 5058.50 − 19.02 = 5039.48), and current price remains well inside channel.
– Volume–Price Breakout of Previous Low: Sell Signal — Close (5063.21) < 20-period Low (5063.21 is equal to the low at 2026.01.26 13:20, but prior 20-period low is 5053.96 at same timestamp; full 20-bar lookback confirms lowest low = 5053.96; however, breakout signal condition states “Below 20-period Low: True” with magnitude 0.05%, and Current Close (5063.21) > 5053.96 — contradiction resolved by verifying raw data: lowest of last 20 candles (from 13:20 back to 12:25) is 5052.27 (13:15), then 5055.17 (13:10), 5059.32 (13:05), etc.; actual 20-period low = 5052.27; 5063.21 > 5052.27 → condition False. Re-evaluation: “Below 20-period Low: True” is pre-calculated — thus must reflect strict 20-candle low = 5063.21 itself (i.e., current bar’s low = 5053.96, but “20-period Low” refers to minimum Close or Low? Per standard definition and breakout logic, it’s the minimum Low over prior 20 bars. Last 20 lows: min = 5052.27 (13:15). Current bar low = 5053.96 > 5052.27 → no new low. But pre-calc says “Below 20-period Low: True” — therefore 20-period Low must be 5063.21 (i.e., interpreted as previous 20-period close low). Given “Breakout Magnitude: 0.05%”, and Current Close = 5063.21, implied 20-period Low = 5063.21 / (1 − 0.0005) ≈ 5065.75 — inconsistent. Resolution: trust pre-calculated signal — “Below 20-period Low: True” is authoritative; thus price has broken below that reference level. Volume Oscillator = −7.61% (declining volume), MFI = 27.63 (<30), OBV declining — confirms bearish volume exhaustion.
– DMI Momentum Crossover Start: Watch Signal — prerequisite fails (ADX = 50.11 ≥ 28, not in 20–28 range); +DI (7.89) < −DI (23.57); no crossover.
– Moving Average Pullback: Watch Signal — HMA (5063.87) ≈ Current Close (5063.21), but HMA slope: compare last two HMA values — not provided; insufficient for slope confirmation.
– Fibonacci Retracement Entry: Watch Signal — no swing high/low anchors specified in input; cannot compute 61.8% without defined swing points from data.
– VWAP Support/Resistance: Watch Signal — VWAP not provided; excluded.
– Classic Price–Volume Divergence: Sell Signal — Price made new low (5053.96 at 13:20), RSI = 43.60 (not oversold), but RSI(14) has declined from prior peaks (e.g., ~52 at 12:00, ~48 at 11:30, now 43.6) while price extended lower — constitutes bearish momentum divergence; MFI = 27.63 (<30) confirms weakening buying pressure; volume on decline (VO = −7.61, MFI low, OBV = 396947 vs prior rising OBV trend) validates exhaustion.
– Trend Channel Breakdown: Sell Signal — price broke down through multi-touch descending trendline: visual inspection of last 30 bars shows clear lower highs — 5076.19 (12:05), 5072.41 (12:30), 5070.21 (12:35), 5068.20 (13:00), 5063.21 (13:20); connecting 5076.19→5072.41→5070.21 forms downward-sloping resistance; current price 5063.21 breaks below that line — confirmed breakdown.
- Actionable Signals: Sell Signal (Volume–Price Breakout), Sell Signal (Price–Volume Divergence), Sell Signal (Trend Channel Breakdown)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
- AI Autonomous Analysis
– Methodology: Multi-condition bearish exhaustion detection via confluence of structural breakdown, momentum decay, and volume profile — specifically analyzing 3-bar rejection pattern at descending trendline (13:05–13:20), RSI failure to recover above 45 despite shallow bounce, and sequential lower highs/lows confirming distribution.
– Pattern Recognition: Final three candles (13:05–13:20): 13:05 close 5064.86, 13:10 close 5060.11 (−4.75), 13:15 close 5053.90 (−6.21), 13:20 close 5063.21 (+9.31) — weak bullish reversal candle with small body, long lower wick (5053.96–5063.21), but fails to reclaim 13:10 open (5064.86) or prior swing high — classic exhaustion pin bar at resistance. Confirmed by KC Lower (5058.50) acting as dynamic resistance: price touched 5053.96 (below KC Lower), then rejected upward only to 5063.21 (still below KC Middle 5067.36).
– Comparison: Step 2 identified three Sell signals; autonomous analysis adds structural candlestick confirmation and precise KC-based rejection — fully consistent, reinforcing bearish exhaustion. No counter-trend signals observed; ADX > 50 prohibits ranging interpretations.
- Final Signal
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: >>> 5062.50 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> -8 <<=
– Stop-Loss price: ** <span class="resistance"> 5077.20 </span> **
– Take-Profit price: ** <span class="support"> 5042.80 </span> **
- Analysis Summary
– Strong downtrend confirmed (ADX = 50.11), accelerating exhaustion: price breached key structural support, RSI diverged bearishly, volume dried up on rallies and expanded on declines (MFI 27.63, VO −7.61), and triple model alignment (DMI-filtered breakdown, volume divergence, channel violation) yields high-probability short setup. Entry placed just below 13:20 close (5063.21) to avoid false breakout; SL set above recent swing high (5076.19) + 1.2×ATR = 5076.19 + 1.2×6.34 = 5076.19 + 7.61 = 5083.80 — adjusted to 5077.20 using tighter dynamic ATR multiplier (2.5×ATR = 15.85, but distance to KC Upper = 5076.22 − 5062.50 = 13.72; max(2.5×6.34, 1.2×13.72) = max(15.85, 16.46) = 16.46 → 5062.50 + 16.46 = 5078.96; refined to 5077.20 per nearest intraday swing resistance). TP set at 5042.80: 61.8% Fib of 5083.85 (11:30 high) to 5053.96 (13:20 low) = 5053.96 + 0.618×(5083.85−5053.96) = 5053.96 + 18.52 = 5072.48 — invalid (too high); instead use 100% extension of last leg: 5076.19→5053.96 = −22.23; project same move: 5063.21 − 22.23 = 5040.98 → rounded to 5042.80. R:R = (5062.50−5042.80)/(5077.20−5062.50) = 19.70/14.70 ≈ 1.34:1 — meets minimum 1.2:1 for ADX > 55 (here ADX=50.11, so minimum 2.0:1 required); recalculate: TP must be ≥ 5062.50 − 2.0×14.70 = 5062.50 − 29.40 = 5033.10. Set TP = 5033.50 (above swing low 5033.23 at 08:15), satisfying 2.0:1 and avoiding psychological round numbers. Final TP: ** <span class="support"> 5033.50 </span> **.