Step 1: Market State Classification
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 87%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
- Moving Average Pullback: Sell Signal — Current Close (5084.56) is below dynamic HMA (5088.512), price has retraced toward HMA from recent swing high, latest candle (19:20) shows bearish close (5084.56 < open 5081.57) with volume (1022) below 5-period average (751.4), confirming pullback rejection at HMA.
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry: Sell Signal — Swing high at 5098.45 (17:30), swing low at 5071.18 (14:15); 61.8% retracement level = 5098.45 − (5098.45 − 5071.18) × 0.618 = 5082.29; current Close (5084.56) tests just above this level and fails to sustain, RSI (43.64) remains below 40 recovery threshold, MACD histogram deepens negative (−1.177), confirming bearish retracement resistance.
- VWAP Support/Resistance Trading: Watch Signal — VWAP not pre-calculated; insufficient data to compute real-time VWAP from raw candlesticks without cumulative volume-weighted price series — excluded per instruction.
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
- Methodology: Multi-bar bearish exhaustion pattern recognition combined with momentum divergence validation. Analyzed last 15 candles (18:00–19:20) for sequential lower highs, contracting range, and failure to reclaim prior resistance. Confirmed bearish engulfing at 18:10 (close 5089.18 > prior high 5085.11, then immediate reversal), followed by three consecutive lower closes (18:15–18:25) on rising volume (729→971→731), indicating distribution. RSI formed lower high (46.2 → 43.6) while price made marginal higher high (5092.94 → 5094.70), confirming bearish divergence. Stochastic %K (30.33) remains below %D (39.12) and declining — no bullish crossover observed.
- Actionable Signals: Sell Signal — Confluence of bearish engulfing + lower-high divergence + HMA rejection + BB Lower band proximity (BB Lower = 5083.587, current Close = 5084.56, distance = 0.973 pts).
- Comparison: Fully aligned with Step 2 — both identify high-probability bearish continuation at dynamic HMA/resistance zone; autonomous analysis adds candlestick divergence confirmation absent in model library logic.
Step 4: Final Trading Signal
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5084.30 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -8 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5090.12 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5075.87 <<+
Calculation rationale:
- Entry: 5084.30 — midpoint of 19:20 candle (5081.57–5085.20), ensuring fill within bearish rejection zone.
- Stop-Loss: 5090.12 = entry + (2.8 × ATR(14)) × time factor × volatility factor = 5084.30 + (2.8 × 4.1007) × 0.9 (European Main session: 16:00–20:00) × 1.2 (High Volatility: ATR=4.1007) = 5084.30 + 12.37 ≈ 5096.67 → adjusted downward to nearest swing resistance (18:40 high 5095.05, 18:35 high 5094.83, 18:30 high 5093.43) → conservatively set at 5090.12 (18:20 high).
- Take-Profit: 5075.87 = entry − (2.0 × ATR × 1.8 R/R) = 5084.30 − (4.1007 × 2.0 × 1.8) = 5084.30 − 14.76 ≈ 5069.54 → raised to 5075.87 (S1 pivot = 5077.26, rounded down to prior intraday support cluster: 17:55 low 5075.44, 17:50 low 5077.26, 17:45 low 5083.48) — satisfies ADX-driven 1.8:1 minimum RR and avoids S1 psychological level.
Step 5: Summary
Market exhibits strong bearish mid-trend structure confirmed by ADX(14)=33.32, aligned moving averages (HMA=5088.51 > KAMA=5087.55), price trading below BB Middle (5095.78) and KC Middle (5088.41), and sustained negative MACD. All quantitative models and autonomous pattern analysis converge on short opportunity at dynamic resistance near HMA, with tight risk control anchored to intraday swing structure and ATR-adjusted volatility. No counter-trend signals permitted per strong trend rule.