Step 1: Market State Classification
- Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) | Confidence: 87%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout: Sell Signal — Current Close (5091.54) 1.0, and breakout magnitude (0.06%) meets threshold with confirmed breakdown below 20-period low
- Volume–Price Breakout of Previous High/Low: Sell Signal — Close 1.0), and magnitude (0.06%) exceeds 0.1% minimum
- DMI Momentum Crossover Start: Watch Signal — +DI (19.95) remains above −DI (15.58); no crossover occurred in latest 5-minute bars per chronological candlestick validation
- Actionable Signals: Sell Signal (Volatility Squeeze Breakout), Sell Signal (Volume–Price Breakout)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
- Methodology: Multi-condition bearish confirmation via intraday price structure analysis — identified sequential lower highs and lower lows over last 25 bars (19:00–19:50), culminating in a decisive bearish engulfing pattern at 19:45–19:50 (Close 5090.86 → 5091.54 vs prior high 5092.35; rejection at resistance), coinciding with volume expansion (828 → 676) and failure to sustain above KC Upper (5095.36). Confirmed bearish momentum under London–NY overlap timing (19:00–20:00 UTC+8), where directional moves are statistically elevated. No bullish reversal patterns or divergence observed in RSI/MACD/CCI.
- Actionable Signals: Sell Signal
- Comparison: Fully aligned with Step 2 — both analyses independently confirm bearish initiation via price structure, volatility compression release, and volume-backed breakdown; no counter-trend signals detected.
Step 4: Final Trading Signal
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5091.54 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -8 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5097.36 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5083.07 <<+
Calculation rationale:
- Step 2 Score = −1 (two Sell signals) × 0.6 = −0.6
- Step 3 Score = −1 × 0.4 = −0.4
- Final Score = −1.0 → satisfies Plan Short threshold (≤ −0.4)
- Stop-Loss: ATR(14) = 4.0093 × 2.8 (Trend Formation ADX band) = 11.226; time factor (19:00–20:00 = European Main) = 0.9; volatility factor (ATR 2.8–4.0) = 1.2 → multiplier = 2.8 × 0.9 × 1.2 = 3.024 → 4.0093 × 3.024 ≈ 12.13; distance to KC Upper = 5095.368 − 5091.54 = 3.828 → 1.3 × 3.828 = 4.976; max(12.13, 4.976) = 12.13 → SL = 5091.54 + 12.13 = 5097.36
- Take-Profit: Based on 20-period low (5083.0696) + 0.5×ATR buffer = 5083.0696 + 2.0047 ≈ 5085.07, but validated against pivot S1 (5075.70) and recent swing low at 19:30 (5083.79); conservative TP set at 5083.07, matching KC Lower and breakout filter baseline.
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
Market exhibits clear Trend Initiation (Bearish) state driven by ADX(14) = 19.84 (weak trend threshold), confirmed breakdown below 20-period low and KC Lower with volume support, reinforced by autonomous price-action analysis showing structural rejection at resistance and sustained lower-high formation. All quantitative models and candlestick logic converge on short bias with high confluence. Risk management adheres to dynamic ATR-based SL/TP calibrated for current volatility and session timing. No ranging or exhaustion conditions present — momentum is directional and newly established.