Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 47.31509498
Since ADX(14) ≥ 35.72348198, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 35.72348198)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 35.72348198):
– True (ADX = 47.31509498)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER: ER > 0.5 -> 5, ER 14, else -> 9) = 5192.84000000
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5220.53810735
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5210.75000000), indicating a bearish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently moving lower, with the current close (5210.75000000) below the typical price (TP = 5261.83000000).
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -0.13942907, indicating a slight decrease in volume, but not enough to contradict the trend.
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback (perform real-time calculations based on the provided candlestick data.)
– Mid-Trend Bearish (Sell): In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 5192.84000000
– Current Close = 5210.75000000
– Candlestick Pattern: The latest 5-minute candle is a bearish candle (Close < Open).
– Volume: Volume is slightly decreasing, but not significantly.
– Signal: Sell Signal? (The price is above the HMA, and a bearish candle appears, but volume is not strongly confirming.)
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry (perform real-time calculations based on the provided candlestick data.)
– Mid-Trend Bearish (Sell): Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5545.34579589 (BB Middle)
– Swing Low: 5106.92420411 (BB Lower)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5326.13500000
– Current Close = 5210.75000000
– RSI(14) = 36.16347359 (Below 60, indicating bearish momentum)
– MACD Histogram = -8.61670821 (Below Signal, no death cross yet)
– Signal: Watch Signal? (The price is below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and RSI is already in the bearish zone, but no MACD death cross yet.)
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
- Watch Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify key candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations (UTC+8 Beijing Time):
- Asian Session (09:00-14:00): Tendency for ranging, lower volatility thresholds apply.
- London Open (15:00-16:00): Increased volatility, trend initiation probability higher.
- London-NY Overlap (20:00-22:00): Highest liquidity, strong directional moves likely.
- NY Session (20:00-01:00): Highest volatility, trend exhaustion signals more reliable.
- Low Liquidity (02:00-06:00): False breakouts common, require confirmation.
- Economic News: Filter signals 15 minutes before/after major news events.
- Overnight Gaps: Consider gap fills as potential support/resistance levels.
#### 5-minute Timeframe Optimization:
- Faster signal confirmation: Use 2-3 bar patterns.
- Shorter lookback periods: 15-20 bars for recent patterns.
- Quicker state transitions: Market states can change within 30-60 minutes.
- Intraday support/resistance: Use today’s high/low, pivot points.
#### Output Analysis Summary:
- Rule: In a STRONG TREND market, PROHIBIT the identification of counter-trend signals.
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal? (Bearish candlestick pattern, price below HMA, and RSI in bearish zone)
– Watch Signal? (No clear MACD death cross, but price is below 61.8% Fibonacci level)
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback), Watch Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal? (Bearish candlestick pattern, price below HMA, and RSI in bearish zone), Watch Signal? (No clear MACD death cross, but price is below 61.8% Fibonacci level)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal? (+1), Watch Signal? (0)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal? (+1), Watch Signal? (0)
Scoring Allocation:
- Step 2 Score: +1 (Sell Signal) * 0.6 = +0.6
- Step 3 Score: +1 (Sell Signal) * 0.4 = +0.4
Final Decision Calculation:
- Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4) = 0.6 + 0.4 = 1.0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≥ 0.4
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX = 47.31509498 (Strong Trend)
- ATR = 42.00357143
- Time Factor (Asian Main Session): 1.1
- Volatility Factor (High Volatility): 1.2
- Base Multiplier = 2.5 (Strong Trend)
- Final Calculation: 2.5 1.1 1.2 = 3.3
- Distance to Key Level (Pivot S1 = 5121.06000000): 5210.75000000 – 5121.06000000 = 89.69
- Max(3.3 ATR, 1.3 Distance to Key Level) = Max(3.3 42.00357143, 1.3 89.69) = Max(138.61, 116.60) = 138.61
- Stop-Loss Price = 5210.75000000 + 138.61 = 5349.36000000
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX (Strong Trend): Minimum 2.0:1, Ideal 2.2:1
- Swing Point (Previous 15-30 bars): 5545.34579589 (BB Middle)
- Buffer: 0.5 ATR = 0.5 42.00357143 = 21.00178571
- Take-Profit Price = 5545.34579589 – 21.00178571 = 5524.34401018
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5210.75 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -8 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5349.36 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5524.34 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback, Bearish candlestick pattern, price below HMA, and RSI in bearish zone)
– Watch Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry, No clear MACD death cross, but price is below 61.8% Fibonacci level)
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: 5210.75
– Signal Strength: -8
– Stop-Loss price: 5349.36
– Take-Profit price: 5524.34
This trading plan is based on the strong bearish trend, supported by both the specified model and autonomous AI analysis. The stop-loss and take-profit levels are calculated to manage risk and capture potential profits effectively.