Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 33.24539311
Since ADX(14) ≥ 30.17141489, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 30.17141489)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 30.17141489): True (ADX = 33.24539311)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5222.87222222
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5220.28051205
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5230.92), indicating a bullish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally increasing, with some pullbacks, but overall, it shows an upward trend.
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 3.98024052, which is positive, indicating volume support for the trend.
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy):
– In uptrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope up): True
– Price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area: Current Close (5230.92) is near HMA (5222.87)
– Bullish candle appears: The latest candle is a small bearish candle, but the previous candles show a bullish pattern.
– Retracement volume decreases: Volume is not significantly decreasing, but it is not increasing either.
– Signal: Buy Signal (Weak)
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy):
– Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and stabilizes:
– Swing High: 5409.35 (from 2026.01.30 09:00)
– Swing Low: 5172.18 (from 2026.01.30 11:50)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5285.53
– Current Close (5230.92) is below the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
– RSI(14) recovers from <40 zone: RSI(14) = 54.96843963 (above 40)
– MACD golden cross confirmation: MACD Histogram = 5.17085136 (positive, but no recent golden cross)
– Signal: No Signal (Conditions not fully met)
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify common candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the 5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Current Session: Asian Session (09:00-14:00) – Tendency for ranging, lower volatility thresholds apply.
- Economic News: No major news events within the last 15 minutes or upcoming 15 minutes.
- Overnight Gaps: No significant gaps observed.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Latest Candle: Small bearish candle, indicating a minor pullback.
– Previous Candles: Show a general bullish trend with some consolidation.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14): 54.96843963 (Neutral, slightly above 50)
– MACD: Positive histogram, but no recent golden cross.
– DMI System: +DI > -DI, indicating a bullish trend.
– Bollinger Bands: Price is near the middle band, suggesting a potential pullback.
– Keltner Channel: Price is near the middle band, also suggesting a potential pullback.
#### Actionable Signals:
- High-Confidence Trading Signals:
– Buy Signal: The market is in a mid-trend bullish state, and the price is near the HMA, indicating a potential buy opportunity after a minor pullback.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Buy Signal (+1)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Buy Signal (+1)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
#### Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Long: Final Score ≥ 0.4
- Trend Priority Exception: ADX >= 30, reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
- Final Decision: Plan Long
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ATR: 14.02000000
- Volatility: Normal Volatility (ATR 1.5-2.8)
- Time Factor: Asian Main Session (09:00-14:00) ×1.1
- Base Multiplier: 3.0 × ATR = 3.0 × 14.02 = 42.06
- Adjusted Stop-Loss: 42.06 × 1.1 = 46.266
- Stop-Loss Price: 5230.92 – 46.266 = 5184.654 (rounded to 5184.65)
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX: Strong Trend (ADX 37.17141489-57.17141489): Minimum 2.0:1, Ideal 2.2:1
- TP Placement Rules:
– Use swing points from previous 15-30 bars: Swing High = 5409.35
– Add 0.5×ATR buffer beyond swing points: 0.5 × 14.02 = 7.01
– Take-Profit Price: 5409.35 + 7.01 = 5416.36
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Long
- Trade entry price: >>> 5230.92 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> 7 <<= (Moderate confidence)
- Stop-Loss price: +>> 5184.65 <<+
- Take-Profit price: ->> 5416.36 <<-