Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 28.39361491
Since ( 21.29122455 leq ADX(14) < 29.29122455 ), we analyze the market as a Weak Trend Market.
#### Weak Trend Market Analysis (21.29122455 ≤ ADX < 29.29122455)
- Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- Clear breakout above (bullish) or below (bearish) a key resistance or support level:
– Below 20-period Low: True
– Magnitude: 0.19%
- Volume expansion confirms the breakout:
– Spike (>1.5x average): False
– Ratio: 1.06
- ADX begins to rise from low levels:
– ADX(14) = 28.39361491 (This is not rising from a very low level, but it is in the weak trend range)
- Price maintains direction in the breakout’s favor for multiple bars:
– The price has been moving downward and has broken below the 20-period low, indicating a bearish trend initiation.
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions confirm trend initiation.
Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout
– Prerequisite: BB Width < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold
– BB Bandwidth = 0.00667552 (Dynamic Bandwidth = 0.02101300)
– Condition Met: No (BB Bandwidth is not narrow enough)
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): Close 1.0 AND Breakout Confirmation
– Close = 5178.63000000
– KC Lower = 5143.36465458
– Breakout Filter = 64.98428571
– VO = 1.14133212
– Condition Met: No (Close is not below KC Lower – Breakout Filter)
- Volume – Price Breakout of Previous High / Low
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): Close 0.1%
– Close = 5178.63000000
– Previous 20-period Low = 5172.27000000
– Increased Volume: False (Spike > 1.5x average: False)
– Breakout Magnitude = 0.19%
– Condition Met: No (Close is not below the previous 20-period Low and no increased volume)
- DMI Momentum Crossover Start
– Prerequisite: 21.29122455 ≤ ADX(14) < 29.29122455
– Condition Met: Yes (ADX(14) = 28.39361491)
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): -DI(14) crosses above +DI(14) (Death Cross)
– +DI(14) = 14.83700134
– -DI(14) = 12.96760129
– Condition Met: No (No Death Cross)
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal: None
- Buy Signal: None
- Watch Signal: Maintain Watch
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators.
Selected Autonomous Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Not present
– Bearish Pin Bar: Not present
– Bearish Harami Pattern: Not present
- Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 48.37420173 (Neutral, not overbought or oversold)
– MACD Histogram = 4.32507318 (Positive, but not strong)
– CCI(14) = 84.15170256 (Neutral, not overbought or oversold)
– Stochastic %K = 70.44078362, %D = 65.04603569 (Neutral, not overbought or oversold)
- Trend Analysis:
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 5167.83761905 (Slightly below current close, indicating a slight bearish bias)
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5171.85571239 (Slightly below current close, indicating a slight bearish bias)
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal: None
- Buy Signal: None
- Watch Signal: Maintain Watch
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): No clear signals, maintain watch.
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): No clear signals, maintain watch.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Watch Signal (Score = 0)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Watch Signal (Score = 0)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (0 × 0.6) + (0 × 0.4) = 0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– -0.4 < Final Score < 0.4 → Maintain Watch
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: 5178.63000000
- Signal Strength: 0
- Support level: 5143.36465458 (KC Lower)
- Resistance level: 5210.90665458 (KC Upper)
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) with 75% confidence.
- Quantitative Analysis (Step 2): No clear buy or sell signals, maintain watch.
- AI Autonomous Analysis (Step 3): No clear buy or sell signals, maintain watch.
- Final Trading Plan: Maintain Watch
- Support Level: 5143.36465458 (KC Lower)
- Resistance Level: 5210.90665458 (KC Upper)
The market is currently in a weak bearish trend initiation phase, but there are no strong signals to enter a trade. It is recommended to maintain a watchful stance and wait for clearer signals.