Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 23.79304374
Since ( 20.42248208 leq ADX(14) < 28.42248208 ), we analyze the market as a Weak Trend Market.
#### Weak Trend Market Analysis (20.42248208 ≤ ADX < 28.42248208)
- Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- Clear breakout above (bullish) or below (bearish) a key resistance or support level:
– The price is currently at 5092.43, which is below the 20-period high (True).
– The price is not below the 20-period low (False).
- Volume expansion confirms the breakout:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -5.80435035, indicating no significant volume expansion.
– Spike (>1.5x average): False
– Ratio: 1.08 (not significantly high)
- ADX begins to rise from low levels:
– ADX(14) = 23.79304374, which is in the weak trend range but not rising from a very low level.
- Price maintains direction in the breakout’s favor for multiple bars:
– Price change = -14.02, indicating a downward movement, but not a strong trend continuation.
Classification:
- Only one condition (Above 20-period High) is strongly met, and the other conditions are not met. Therefore, the market does not meet the criteria for a clear trend initiation state.
Probability-Based Fallback Analysis:
- Ranging Probability Factors:
– Low ADX value: +40%
– Narrow price range: +30%
– Consolidation patterns: +30%
- Initiation Probability Factors:
– Moderate ADX with upward slope: +30%
– Clear breakout signals: +40%
– Volume confirmation: +30%
- Mid-Trend Probability Factors:
– High ADX reading: +40%
– Trend consistency: +30%
– Channel adherence: +30%
- Exhaustion Probability Factors:
– ADX decline from peaks: +35%
– Multiple divergence signals: +40%
– Extended trend duration: +25%
Final Output:
- Market State: Ranging/Consolidation | Confidence: 70%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option A: Ranging/Consolidation State
- Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion:
– Bullish (Buy): Current Close Price <= BB Lower Band AND RSI(14) < Dynamic Oversold Line AND Increased Volume
– Current Close: 5092.43
– BB Lower: 5093.67887529
– RSI(14): 33.78578234 (Dynamic Oversold Line: 25)
– Volume: No significant increase
– Signal: No Buy Signal
– Bearish (Sell): Current Close Price >= BB Upper Band AND RSI(14) > Dynamic Overbought Line AND Increased Volume
– Current Close: 5092.43
– BB Upper: 5154.81500000
– RSI(14): 33.78578234 (Dynamic Overbought Line: 75)
– Volume: No significant increase
– Signal: No Sell Signal
- Pivot Point Range Trading:
– Bullish (Buy): Current Close Price <= Pivot Support S1 AND Bullish Candlestick Pattern AND Increased Volume
– Current Close: 5092.43
– Pivot Support S1: 5094.63000000
– No bullish candlestick pattern
– Volume: No significant increase
– Signal: No Buy Signal
– Bearish (Sell): Current Close Price >= Pivot Resistance R1 AND Bearish Candlestick Pattern AND Increased Volume
– Current Close: 5092.43
– Pivot Resistance R1: 5218.81000000
– No bearish candlestick pattern
– Volume: No significant increase
– Signal: No Sell Signal
- Cloud Oscillator (DMI Filter):
– Prerequisite: ADX(14) < 20.42248208 (Not met, ADX(14) = 23.79304374)
– Bullish (Buy): Stochastic % K < 20, then % K crosses above % D (Golden Cross)
– Stochastic %K: 22.11538462
– Stochastic %D: 28.60846321
– No Golden Cross
– Signal: No Buy Signal
– Bearish (Sell): Stochastic % K > 80, then % K crosses below % D (Death Cross)
– Stochastic %K: 22.11538462
– Stochastic %D: 28.60846321
– No Death Cross
– Signal: No Sell Signal
Actionable Signals:
- No Buy or Sell signals triggered.
- Default Output: Maintain Watch
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Analyze recent candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context of the 5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
Selected Timeframe: 5-minute (UTC+8 Beijing Time)
- Current Session: London Open (15:00-16:00) – Increased volatility, trend initiation probability higher.
Candlestick Patterns:
- Recent Bars: No clear reversal or continuation patterns observed.
Indicators:
- RSI(14): 33.78578234 (Oversold but not extremely so)
- MACD: Below Signal Line, no Golden or Death Cross
- DMI System: +DI below -DI, no Golden or Death Cross
Conclusion:
- No high-confidence trading signals identified by the AI’s autonomous analysis.
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): No Buy or Sell signals.
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): No high-confidence trading signals.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): No Buy or Sell signals (Score = 0)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): No high-confidence trading signals (Score = 0)
Final Decision Calculation:
- Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4) = (0 × 0.6) + (0 × 0.4) = 0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Since the final score is 0, the action is Maintain Watch.
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- Not applicable as no trade is initiated.
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Not applicable as no trade is initiated.
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: 5092.43
- Signal Strength: 0
- Support level: 5094.63
- Resistance level: 5218.81
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Ranging/Consolidation with 70% confidence.
- Quantitative Analysis: No Buy or Sell signals triggered by the specified models.
- AI Autonomous Analysis: No high-confidence trading signals identified.
- Final Trading Plan: Maintain Watch.
- Key Levels:
– Support Level: 5094.63
– Resistance Level: 5218.81
The market is currently in a ranging/consolidation state, and there are no clear signals for a trade. It is recommended to maintain a watchful stance and wait for more definitive signals.