Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 41.74464551
Since ADX(14) ≥ 32.90312664, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 32.90312664)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 32.90312664): True (ADX = 41.74464551)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5081.10355292
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5072.08354589
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5092.41), indicating a bullish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally increasing, with some pullbacks, but the overall direction is upward.
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -2.05436039 (slightly negative, but not significantly so)
– OBV = 3667185.00000000 (positive, indicating buying pressure)
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy):
– In uptrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope up): True
– Price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area: Current Close (5092.41) is near HMA (5081.10)
– Bullish candle appears: The latest candle is a small bullish candle.
– Retracement volume decreases: Volume (2217) is slightly lower than the 5-period average (2297.60).
– Signal: Buy Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy):
– Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and stabilizes:
– Swing High: 5332.27 (from 2026.01.29 23:15)
– Swing Low: 5010.10 (from 2026.01.30 18:00)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5147.64
– Current Close (5092.41) is below the 61.8% level, but it is stabilizing.
– RSI(14) recovers from <40 zone: RSI(14) = 55.55128032 (above 40, indicating recovery)
– MACD golden cross confirmation: MACD Histogram = 12.30222134 (positive, but no golden cross yet)
– Signal: Watch Signal (since the price is below the 61.8% level and no MACD golden cross)
#### Actionable Signals:
- Buy Signal: Moving Average Pullback
- Watch Signal: Fibonacci Retracement Entry
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Analyze candlestick patterns and their context within the market structure.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the 5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences in RSI, MACD, and other oscillators.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Current Session: 18:50 (UTC+8 Beijing Time) – Asian Session (lower volatility thresholds apply).
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– The latest candle is a small bullish candle, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.
- Trend Indicators:
– ADX(14) = 41.74464551 (strong trend)
– +DI(14) > -DI(14) (bullish trend)
– HMA and KAMA are both below the current close, supporting the bullish trend.
- Oscillators:
– RSI(14) = 55.55128032 (neutral, but above 50, indicating bullish momentum)
– MACD Histogram = 12.30222134 (positive, but no golden cross yet)
#### Actionable Signals:
- High-Confidence Trading Signal:
– Buy Signal: The combination of a strong ADX, positive RSI, and the price retracing to the HMA support suggests a buy signal.
#### Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Buy Signal (Moving Average Pullback), Watch Signal (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Buy Signal
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Step 2 Score:
– Buy Signal: +1
– Watch Signal: 0
– Total: +1
- Step 3 Score:
– Buy Signal: +1
– Total: +1
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
#### Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Long: Final Score ≥ 0.4 (True, since 1.0 ≥ 0.4)
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX = 41.74464551 (Strong Trend)
- ATR(14) = 27.31285714
- Base Multiplier: 2.5 × ATR = 2.5 × 27.31285714 = 68.28214285
- Time Factor (Asian Main Session): 1.1
- Volatility Factor (Normal Volatility): 1.0
- Final Calculation: 68.28214285 × 1.1 × 1.0 = 75.11035714
- Stop-Loss Price: 5092.41 – 75.11 ≈ 5017.30
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX (Strong Trend): Minimum 2.0:1
- Swing Point: 5332.27 (from 2026.01.29 23:15)
- Buffer: 0.5 × ATR = 0.5 × 27.31285714 = 13.65642857
- Take-Profit Price: 5332.27 + 13.65642857 ≈ 5345.93
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Long
- Trade entry price: >>> 5092.41 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> 10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: +>> 5017.30 <<+
- Take-Profit price: ->> 5345.93 <<-
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
- Actionable Signals:
– Buy Signal: Moving Average Pullback
– Watch Signal: Fibonacci Retracement Entry
- AI Autonomous Analysis:
– Buy Signal: Strong ADX, positive RSI, and price retracing to HMA support.
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Long
– Trade entry price: 5092.41
– Signal Strength: 10
– Stop-Loss price: 5017.30
– Take-Profit price: 5345.93