Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 51.80039654
Since ADX(14) ≥ 30.32839967, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 30.32839967)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 30.32839967):
– True (ADX = 51.80039654)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5101.04955556
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5090.89500680
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5112.00000000), indicating a bullish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally increasing, with the current close (5112.00000000) above the typical price (TP = 5283.31666667).
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– OBV = 3669544.00000000
– MFI(14) = 84.38689381 (indicating strong buying pressure)
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 1.29570333 (positive, indicating increasing volume)
Classification:
- 3 or more conditions indicate strong trend continuation → CLASSIFY AS MID-TREND (BULLISH).
Final Output:
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 100%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– In uptrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope up), price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bullish candle appears, and retracement volume decreases.
– Current Close = 5112.00000000
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 5101.04955556
– Price is near the HMA, but no clear bullish candle pattern is observed.
– Volume: No significant decrease in volume.
– Signal: Watch Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and stabilizes, RSI(14) recovers from <40 zone, MACD golden cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5516.88000000 (from 2026.01.29 22:20)
– Swing Low: 5070.08181494 (BB Lower Band)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5283.31666667
– Current Close = 5112.00000000 (not at 61.8% Fibonacci level)
– RSI(14) = 58.14818743 (above 40, but not recovering from <40)
– MACD Histogram = 11.05637829 (positive, but no golden cross)
– Signal: Watch Signal
Scan Results:
- Moving Average Pullback: Watch Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry: Watch Signal
Actionable Signals:
- Maintain Watch
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify common candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context of the 5-minute timeframe.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Current Time: 19:05 (UTC+8 Beijing Time)
- Session: Asian Session (09:00-14:00)
- Tendency: Ranging, lower volatility thresholds apply.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Recent Bars:
– 19:05: Bullish candle
– 19:00: Bearish candle
– 18:55: Bullish candle
– 18:50: Bullish candle
– 18:45: Bullish candle
– No clear reversal patterns observed.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 58.14818743 (neutral, not overbought/oversold)
– MACD Histogram = 11.05637829 (positive, but no golden cross)
– ADX(14) = 51.80039654 (strong trend)
– Volume: OBV = 3669544.00000000 (increasing, but no significant spike)
- Support/Resistance:
– Pivot Points:
– PP = 5068.66333333
– R1 = 5195.00666667
– S1 = 4951.15666667
– Current Close = 5112.00000000 (near S1, but not touching it)
- Fibonacci Levels:
– Swing High: 5516.88000000
– Swing Low: 5070.08181494
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5283.31666667 (price not at this level)
High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- No clear high-confidence signals identified.
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Maintain Watch
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Maintain Watch
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Watch Signal (Score = 0)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Watch Signal (Score = 0)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (0 × 0.6) + (0 × 0.4) = 0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– -0.4 < Final Score < 0.4 → Maintain Watch
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: 5112.00000000
- Signal Strength: 0
- Support level: 4951.15666667
- Resistance level: 5195.00666667
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 100%
- Specified Model Analysis:
– Moving Average Pullback: Watch Signal
– Fibonacci Retracement Entry: Watch Signal
- AI Autonomous Analysis:
– No clear high-confidence signals identified.
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Watch
– Latest Close: 5112.00000000
– Signal Strength: 0
– Support level: 4951.15666667
– Resistance level: 5195.00666667
The market is currently in a mid-trend bullish state, but there are no clear high-confidence trading signals. Therefore, the recommended action is to maintain a watchful stance.