Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 33.44883817
Since ( 33.99659123 leq text{ADX(14)} < 40.99659123 ), we classify the market as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 33.99659123):
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 33.99659123):
– ADX(14) = 33.44883817 (Condition met, but slightly below the threshold).
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5114.95999986
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5113.70378032
– Both moving averages are close to the current price, indicating a slight bullish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally moving upwards, with some retracements.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– OBV = 3675457.00000000
– MFI(14) = 69.11834844 (indicating moderate buying pressure)
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 4.03191936 (positive, indicating increasing volume)
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy): In uptrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope up), price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bullish candle appears, and retracement volume decreases.
– Current Close Price: 5119.09000000
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 5114.95999986
– KAMA(10,2,30): 5113.70378032
– Candlestick Pattern: The latest candle is a small bearish candle, not a bullish one.
– Volume: Volume is not significantly decreasing.
– Signal: No Buy Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy): Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and stabilizes, RSI(14) recovers from <40 zone, MACD golden cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5519.59000000 (from 2026.01.29 21:55)
– Swing Low: 5080.36000000 (from 2026.01.30 18:50)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5300.00000000
– Current Close Price: 5119.09000000
– RSI(14): 55.81948653 (not in the <40 zone)
– MACD Histogram: -0.77903269 (no golden cross)
– Signal: No Buy Signal
Scan Results:
- No Buy or Sell signals triggered.
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify common candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Current Time: 2026.01.30 19:50 (UTC+8 Beijing Time)
- Session: Asian Session (09:00-14:00) – Tendency for ranging, lower volatility thresholds apply.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– The latest candle is a small bearish candle, indicating a minor pullback.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14): 55.81948653 (neutral, not overbought or oversold)
– MACD: Below signal line, no golden cross.
– ADX(14): 33.44883817 (strong trend, but slightly below the threshold)
– Volume: OBV = 3675457.00000000, MFI(14) = 69.11834844 (moderate buying pressure)
High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- No high-confidence trading signals identified.
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): No Buy or Sell signals.
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): No high-confidence trading signals.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Step 2 Score: 0 (No Buy or Sell signals)
- Step 3 Score: 0 (No high-confidence trading signals)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4) = (0 × 0.6) + (0 × 0.4) = 0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Since the final score is 0, the action is to Maintain Watch.
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- Low Ranging (ADX < 25.99659123): max(3.5 × ATR, 1.5 × distance to key level)
- Normal Ranging (ADX 25.99659123-33.99659123): max(3.0 × ATR, 1.4 × distance to key level)
- Trend Formation (ADX 33.99659123-40.99659123): max(2.8 × ATR, 1.3 × distance to key level)
- Strong Trend (ADX 40.99659123-60.99659123): max(2.5 × ATR, 1.2 × distance to key level)
- Very Strong Trend (ADX > 60.99659123): max(3.0 × ATR, 1.4 × distance to key level)
ATR(14) = 19.44285714
- Stop-Loss Calculation:
– For a hypothetical buy entry at 5119.09000000:
– Stop-Loss = 5119.09000000 – max(2.8 × 19.44285714, 1.3 × 10) = 5119.09000000 – 54.44 = 5064.65
– For a hypothetical sell entry at 5119.09000000:
– Stop-Loss = 5119.09000000 + max(2.8 × 19.44285714, 1.3 × 10) = 5119.09000000 + 54.44 = 5173.53
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX:
– Trend Formation (ADX 33.99659123-40.99659123): Minimum 1.8:1, Ideal 2.5:1
- Take-Profit Calculation:
– For a hypothetical buy entry at 5119.09000000:
– Take-Profit = 5119.09000000 + 1.8 × 54.44 = 5119.09000000 + 98.00 = 5217.09
– For a hypothetical sell entry at 5119.09000000:
– Take-Profit = 5119.09000000 – 1.8 × 54.44 = 5119.09000000 – 98.00 = 5021.09
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: 5119.09000000
- Signal Strength: 0
- Support level: 5064.65
- Resistance level: 5173.53
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
- Specified Model Analysis: No Buy or Sell signals triggered.
- Autonomous AI Analysis: No high-confidence trading signals identified.
- Final Decision: Maintain Watch
- Support Level: 5064.65
- Resistance Level: 5173.53
The market is currently in a mid-trend bullish state, but there are no clear trading signals from either the specified models or the autonomous AI analysis. Therefore, the recommended action is to maintain a watchful stance.