Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 52.95515343
Since ADX(14) ≥ 31.70744908, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 31.70744908)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 31.70744908): True (ADX = 52.95515343)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5018.38511111
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5030.87248750
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5006.98000000), indicating a bearish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently moving downward, with the current close (5006.98000000) below the BB Middle (5146.99491153).
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -11.37118456, indicating declining volume, which is not ideal but does not contradict the trend.
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– Current Close: 5006.98000000
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 5018.38511111
– KAMA(10,2,30): 5030.87248750
– Candlestick Pattern: Bearish (Close < Open)
– Volume: Decreasing (Volume Oscillator = -11.37118456)
– Signal: Sell Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5409.35000000 (09:00, 2026.01.30)
– Swing Low: 4984.10000000 (21:45, 2026.01.30)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5197.23000000
– Current Close: 5006.98000000
– RSI(14): 34.42917068 (Declining from >60 zone)
– MACD Death Cross: False (MACD Position: Below Signal; Death Cross: False)
– Signal: No Signal
#### Scan Results:
- Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- No Signal (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences in key indicators like RSI and MACD.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Session: NY Session (20:00-01:00) – Highest volatility, trend exhaustion signals more reliable.
- Economic News: No major news events within the last 15 minutes.
- Overnight Gaps: No significant gaps observed.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing: Not present.
– Bearish Harami: Not present.
– Bearish Doji Star: Not present.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14): 34.42917068 (Oversold, but not extreme)
– MACD: Below Signal Line, no recent crosses.
– DMI System: +DI(14) = 5.60265364, -DI(14) = 22.49281280 (Bearish, -DI above +DI)
– Volume: Declining (Volume Oscillator = -11.37118456)
#### Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal (DMI System and Moving Averages)
- No Buy Signal (No bullish patterns or indicators)
#### Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (DMI System and Moving Averages)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Step 2 Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Step 3 Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
#### Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX: 52.95515343 (Very Strong Trend)
- ATR: 28.52428571
- Time Factor: 1.0 (NY Main Session)
- Volatility Factor: 1.0 (Normal Volatility)
- Base Multiplier: 2.5 × ATR = 71.31071428
- Distance to Key Level (Pivot S1): 4930.72666667
- Stop-Loss Price: max(71.31071428, 1.4 × (5006.98000000 – 4930.72666667)) = max(71.31071428, 108.53333333) = 108.53333333
- Adjusted Stop-Loss Price: 5006.98000000 – 108.53333333 = 4898.44666667
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX: Minimum 1.2:1, Ideal 1.5:1
- TP Placement Rules:
– Use swing points from previous 15-30 bars
– Add 0.5×ATR buffer beyond swing points
– Avoid obvious psychological levels
- Swing High: 5409.35000000
- Buffer: 0.5 × 28.52428571 = 14.26214286
- Take-Profit Price: 5409.35000000 – 14.26214286 = 5395.08785714
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5006.98 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4898.45 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5395.09 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
– Sell Signal (DMI System and Moving Averages)
- Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: 5006.98
– Signal Strength: -10
– Stop-Loss price: 4898.45
– Take-Profit price: 5395.09
This trading plan is based on the strong bearish trend and the confluence of multiple sell signals from both the specified models and autonomous AI analysis.