Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 32.32493341
Since ADX(14) ≥ 31.82149293, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 31.82149293)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 31.82149293): True (ADX = 32.32493341)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 5055.09622222
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 5053.59149953
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (5070.21), indicating a bearish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently moving lower, with recent bars showing a downward trend.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -0.98944279, indicating a slight decrease in volume, but not enough to suggest a reversal.
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– Condition: In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and retracement volume decreases.
– Analysis:
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 5055.09622222
– Current Close = 5070.21
– Price is above the HMA, and the last few candles show a bearish pattern.
– Volume has decreased slightly (VO = -0.98944279).
– Signal: Sell Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Condition: Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Analysis:
– Recent swing high: 5519.59 (2026.01.29 21:55)
– Recent swing low: 5017.16 (2026.01.30 22:00)
– 61.8% Fibonacci level: 5272.75
– Current Close = 5070.21
– RSI(14) = 52.05620785 (below 60)
– MACD Histogram = 8.87395158 (positive, no death cross)
– Signal: No Signal
#### Key Level Validation:
- Support/Resistance:
– Pivot Points: S1 = 4958.84666667, S2 = 4898.49333333
– Current Close = 5070.21
– Support: S1 = 4958.84666667
– Resistance: R1 = 5112.50666667
- Volume Confirmation:
– Volume is decreasing slightly, but still significant (OBV = 3682001.00000000).
#### Final Summary
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Default Output:
– Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the 5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences in RSI, MACD, and other indicators.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Current Session: NY Session (20:00-01:00) – Highest volatility, trend exhaustion signals more reliable.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Recent candles show a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential further downside.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 52.05620785 (neutral, but declining)
– MACD Histogram = 8.87395158 (positive, but declining)
– ATR(14) = 27.71357143 (high volatility)
- Trend Channels:
– Price is within a clear downtrend channel, with support at 4958.84666667 and resistance at 5112.50666667.
#### High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- Sell Signal:
– Bearish candlestick pattern
– RSI and MACD divergence
– Price within a downtrend channel
#### Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (Bearish candlestick pattern, RSI and MACD divergence, downtrend channel)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Step 2 Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Step 3 Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
#### Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX = 32.32493341 (Strong Trend)
- ATR = 27.71357143
- Time Factor (NY Session): 0.7
- Volatility Factor (High Volatility): 1.2
- Base Multiplier: 2.5 (Strong Trend)
- Stop-Loss Calculation:
– Base Multiplier × Time Factor × Volatility Factor = 2.5 × 0.7 × 1.2 = 2.1
– Distance to key level (S1 = 4958.84666667) = 5070.21 – 4958.84666667 = 111.36333333
– Stop-Loss = 5070.21 – max(2.1 × 27.71357143, 1.3 × 111.36333333) = 5070.21 – 144.4985 = 4925.7115
– Adjusted Stop-Loss: 4925.71 (at least $10 higher than the entry price)
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX (Strong Trend): Minimum 2.0:1, Ideal 2.2:1
- TP Placement:
– Swing point: 5112.50666667 (R1)
– Add 0.5 × ATR buffer: 0.5 × 27.71357143 = 13.85678571
– TP = 5112.50666667 – 13.85678571 = 5098.65
– Adjusted TP: 5098.65 (at least $10 lower than the entry price)
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 5070.21 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4925.71 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 5098.65 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
– Sell Signal (Bearish candlestick pattern, RSI and MACD divergence, downtrend channel)
- Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: 5070.21
– Signal Strength: -10
– Stop-Loss price: 4925.71
– Take-Profit price: 5098.65
This trading plan is based on a strong bearish trend, supported by both the specified model and autonomous AI analysis. The stop-loss and take-profit levels are calculated to manage risk and maximize potential returns.