Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 38.28387077
Since ADX(14) ≥ 31.84677071, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 31.84677071)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 31.84677071): True (ADX = 38.28387071)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 4985.59644181
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4994.77050508
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (4979.01000000), indicating a bearish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently moving lower, with the current close (4979.01000000) below the previous close (4981.66000).
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -0.58362369, indicating a slight decrease in volume, but not enough to contradict the trend.
– OBV = 3681348.00000000, which is relatively stable, supporting the trend.
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and retracement volume decreases.
– Current Close: 4979.01000000
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 4985.59644181
– KAMA(10,2,30): 4994.77050508
– Candlestick Pattern: Bearish (Close < Open)
– Volume: Decreasing (Volume Oscillator = -0.58362369)
– Signal: Sell Signal? (Price is below HMA and KAMA, and volume is decreasing)
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5300.80000 (from 2026.01.30 09:00)
– Swing Low: 4979.01000000 (current close)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5089.80000
– RSI(14): 38.66890707 (below 60)
– MACD Histogram: -3.89884111 (negative, no death cross)
– Signal: Watch Signal? (No clear retracement to 61.8% Fibonacci level, and no MACD death cross)
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify key candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Session: Asian Session (09:00-14:00) – Tendency for ranging, lower volatility thresholds apply.
- Economic News: No major news events within the last 15 minutes.
- Overnight Gaps: No significant gaps observed.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Not present.
– Bearish Pin Bar: Not present.
– Bearish Marubozu: Present (strong bearish candle).
- Indicators:
– RSI(14): 38.66890707 (below 50, indicating bearish momentum)
– MACD: Below signal line, negative histogram (-3.89884111)
– DMI System: +DI(14) = 9.53073720, -DI(14) = 25.21633828 (bearish, -DI above +DI)
- Trend Confirmation:
– HMA (Dynamic Period): 4985.59644181 (price below HMA, confirming bearish trend)
– KAMA(10,2,30): 4994.77050508 (price below KAMA, confirming bearish trend)
- Actionable Signals:
– High-Confidence Sell Signal: Bearish Marubozu, RSI below 50, MACD below signal line, -DI above +DI, and price below HMA and KAMA.
#### Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (Moving Average Pullback)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (Bearish Marubozu, RSI, MACD, DMI, and Moving Averages)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (+1)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (+1)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– Since ADX >= 30, reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
– Final Score (1.0) ≥ 0.3 → Plan Short
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ATR(14): 27.51357143
- ADX(14): 38.28387077 (Strong Trend)
- Multiplier: 2.5 (Strong Trend)
- Distance to Key Level: 1.2 × 27.51357143 = 33.01628572
- Stop-Loss Price: 4979.01000000 + 33.01628572 = 5012.02628572
- Adjusted Stop-Loss Price: 5012.02628572 (rounded to 5012.03)
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX:
– Strong Trend (ADX 38.84677071-58.84677071): Minimum 2.0:1, Ideal 2.2:1
- Take-Profit Price:
– Risk: 5012.03 – 4979.01 = 33.02
– Reward: 33.02 × 2.0 = 66.04
– Take-Profit Price: 4979.01 – 66.04 = 4912.97
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4979.01 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 5012.03 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4912.97 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Trading Plan: Plan Short
- Entry Price: 4979.01
- Stop-Loss Price: 5012.03
- Take-Profit Price: 4912.97
- Key Indicators:
– ADX(14) = 38.28387077 (Strong Trend)
– RSI(14) = 38.66890707 (Below 50, bearish)
– MACD Histogram = -3.89884111 (Negative, bearish)
– -DI(14) > +DI(14) (Bearish)
– HMA and KAMA below current price (Bearish)
- Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Marubozu
This comprehensive analysis confirms a strong bearish trend, and the trading plan is to enter a short position with appropriate risk management.