Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 54.61217483
Since ADX(14) ≥ 30.18076803, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 30.18076803)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
– Check Conditions:
– ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 30.18076803): True (ADX = 54.61217483)
– Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 4736.32577778
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4762.77502417
– Both moving averages are below the current close price of 4698.45, indicating a bearish trend.
– Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been consistently moving downward, with lower highs and lower lows.
– Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = 5.10073862, which is positive, but not significantly high. However, the volume pattern does not show any significant divergence from the price trend.
– Classification:
– 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
– Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback
– Condition:
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price rallies to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and rally volume decreases.
– Analysis:
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 4736.32577778
– Current Close = 4698.45
– The price is below the HMA, and the last few candles show a bearish pattern.
– Volume has not shown a significant decrease, but the overall trend is bearish.
– Signal: Sell Signal? (Reason: Price is below HMA, and the trend is bearish.)
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Condition:
– Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Analysis:
– Recent swing high: 5409.73 (2026.01.30 07:15)
– Recent swing low: 4698.45 (2026.01.31 02:35)
– 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level: 5054.09
– Current Close = 4698.45
– RSI(14) = 26.12353518 (below 60)
– MACD Histogram = -12.34720641 (death cross confirmed)
– Signal: Sell Signal? (Reason: Price is below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, RSI is declining, and MACD shows a death cross.)
#### Final Summary
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
– Sell Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition and Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
– Analyze recent candlestick patterns and technical indicators.
– Consider the current session (UTC+8 Beijing Time: 02:35, Ultra Low Volatility Session).
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– The last few candles show a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend.
- Technical Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 26.12353518: Oversold, but still in a bearish trend.
– MACD Histogram = -12.34720641: Death cross confirmed, indicating a bearish trend.
– ADX(14) = 54.61217483: Strong trend, confirming the bearish momentum.
– Volume: No significant increase in volume, but the trend is consistent.
#### Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal? (Reason: Bearish candlestick patterns, RSI in oversold territory, MACD death cross, and strong ADX reading.)
#### Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2) vs. Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3):
– Both analyses confirm a Sell Signal based on different criteria but consistent with the bearish trend.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal = -1
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal = -1
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
#### Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX = 54.61217483 (Very Strong Trend)
- Base Multiplier: max(3.0 × ATR, 1.4 × distance to key level)
- ATR(14) = 49.84428571
- Base Multiplier: 3.0 × 49.84428571 = 149.53285714
- Time Factor (Ultra Low Volatility Session): 1.3
- Volatility Factor (High Volatility): 1.2
- Final Calculation: 149.53285714 × 1.3 × 1.2 = 239.25257142
- Stop-Loss Price: 4698.45 + 239.25257142 = 4937.70257142 ≈ 4937.70
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX (Very Strong Trend): Minimum 1.2:1, Ideal 1.5:1
- Swing Points:
– Recent swing high: 5409.73
– Recent swing low: 4698.45
- Take-Profit Placement:
– Use swing points from previous 15-30 bars.
– Add 0.5 × ATR buffer beyond swing points.
– 0.5 × 49.84428571 = 24.92214285
– Take-Profit Price: 4698.45 – 24.92214285 = 4673.52785715 ≈ 4673.53
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4698.45 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4937.70 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4673.53 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
– Sell Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
- Suggested Action: Plan Short
- Final Trading Signal:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: >>> 4698.45 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
– **Stop-Loss price: <span class="resistance"> 4937.70 </span>**
– **Take-Profit price: <span class="support"> 4673.53 </span>**