Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 34.27825180
Since ADX(14) ≥ 32.09190054, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 32.09190054)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 32.09190054):
– True (ADX = 34.27825180)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 4917.38000000
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4906.06372198
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (4931.60000000), indicating a bullish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally increasing, with some pullbacks, but the overall trend is upward.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– OBV = 3680773.00000000
– MFI(14) = 76.75508413 (indicating strong buying pressure)
Classification:
- 3 or more conditions indicate strong trend continuation → CLASSIFY AS MID-TREND (BULLISH)
Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 80%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback (perform real-time calculations based on the provided candlestick data.)
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy): In uptrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope up), price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bullish candle appears, and retracement volume decreases.
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 4917.38000000
– Current Close = 4931.60000000
– Price is above HMA, and the last few candles show a slight retracement.
– Volume: 5-period Average = 2626.20000000; Current Volume = 2466 (decreased)
– Signal: Buy Signal? (Reason: Price retraced to HMA, bullish candle, and volume decreased)
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry (perform real-time calculations based on the provided candlestick data.)
– Mid-Trend Bullish (Buy): Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and stabilizes, RSI(14) recovers from <40 zone, MACD golden cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5409.73000000 (from 2026.01.30 09:25)
– Swing Low: 4864.61000000 (from 2026.01.31 03:25)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5077.00000000
– Current Close = 4931.60000000 (below 61.8% Fibonacci level)
– RSI(14) = 58.78203087 (above 40)
– MACD Histogram = 11.66277672 (positive, but no golden cross)
– Signal: Watch Signal? (Reason: Price not at 61.8% Fibonacci level, and no MACD golden cross)
Actionable Signals:
- Buy Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
- Watch Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify common candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context of the 5-minute chart within the daily and hourly timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations (UTC+8 Beijing Time):
- Current Time: 03:50 (Asian Session)
- Tendency for ranging, lower volatility thresholds apply.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bullish Engulfing Pattern: Not present.
– Bullish Harami Pattern: Not present.
– Bullish Hammer Pattern: Not present.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 58.78203087 (Neutral)
– MACD Histogram = 11.66277672 (Positive, but no golden cross)
– ADX(14) = 34.27825180 (Strong Trend)
– Volume: Decreasing (2466 < 5-period average 2626.20000000)
- Support/Resistance:
– Pivot Points:
– PP = 4885.74333333
– R1 = 5081.50666667
– S1 = 4697.35666667
– Current Close = 4931.60000000 (between PP and R1)
High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- Buy Signal? (Reason: Price above HMA, decreasing volume, and positive MACD histogram)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Buy Signal = +1, Watch Signal = 0
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Buy Signal = +1
Scoring Allocation:
- Step2_Score = 1 (Buy Signal)
- Step3_Score = 1 (Buy Signal)
- Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4) = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Long: Final Score ≥ 0.4
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ADX = 34.27825180 (Trend Formation)
- ATR(14) = 33.30785714
- Base Multiplier = max(2.8 × ATR, 1.3 × distance to key level)
- Time Factor (Asian Session) = 1.1
- Volatility Factor (Normal Volatility) = 1.0
- Final Calculation: 2.8 × 33.30785714 × 1.1 × 1.0 = 100.28
- Stop-Loss Price: 4931.60000000 – 100.28 = 4831.32000000 (rounded to 4831.32)
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX: Minimum 1.8:1, Ideal 2.5:1
- TP Placement: Use swing points from previous 15-30 bars
- Swing High: 5409.73000000 (from 2026.01.30 09:25)
- Add 0.5×ATR buffer: 0.5 × 33.30785714 = 16.65
- Take-Profit Price: 5409.73000000 – 16.65 = 5393.08000000 (rounded to 5393.08)
The Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Long
- Trade entry price: >>> 4931.60 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> 1 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: +>> 4831.32 <<+
- Take-Profit price: ->> 5393.08 <<-
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 80%
- Primary Analysis (Step 2):
– Buy Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
– Watch Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
- Autonomous Analysis (Step 3):
– Buy Signal? (Price above HMA, decreasing volume, and positive MACD histogram)
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Long
– Trade entry price: 4931.60
– Signal Strength: 1
– Stop-Loss price: 4831.32
– Take-Profit price: 5393.08
This comprehensive analysis confirms a strong bullish trend, and the trading plan is to go long with appropriate risk management.