Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 30.76671737
Since ADX(14) ≥ 32.93217128, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 32.93217128)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 32.93217128): True (ADX = 30.76671737)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 4850.72244444
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4859.41029238
– Current Close = 4844.22000000
– The moving averages are not clearly aligned in a strong trend direction.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– Price has been fluctuating but generally moving sideways.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -3.69837775
– OBV = 3673290.00000000
– MFI(14) = 30.38136370
– Volume does not strongly support a clear trend direction.
Classification:
- Only 1 condition (ADX) strongly indicates a strong trend continuation. Therefore, we do not classify this as a Mid-Trend (Bullish/Bearish) state.
- Option D: Trend Exhaustion State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- Price makes a new extreme, but key indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show divergence:
– No new extreme price levels observed.
- Volume patterns indicate weakening momentum (e.g., declining volume on advances in an uptrend):
– Volume Oscillator (VO) = -3.69837775
– OBV = 3673290.00000000
– MFI(14) = 30.38136370
– Volume shows some weakening, but not strongly.
- Potential reversal candlestick patterns appear at key support/resistance levels:
– No clear reversal patterns observed.
- Momentum oscillators show overextended or reversal signals:
– RSI(14) = 41.39102963 (not overextended)
– MACD Histogram = -6.45532204 (below signal line, but no clear divergence)
Classification:
- 1 condition (volume) suggests potential trend exhaustion, but it is not strong enough to classify as Trend Exhaustion (Bullish/Bearish).
Probability-Based Fallback Analysis:
- Ranging Probability Factors:
– Low ADX value: +40% (Not applicable, ADX is high)
– Narrow price range: +30% (Price range is not narrow)
– Consolidation patterns: +30% (No clear consolidation patterns)
- Initiation Probability Factors:
– Moderate ADX with upward slope: +30% (ADX is high, not moderate)
– Clear breakout signals: +40% (No clear breakout)
– Volume confirmation: +30% (Volume does not confirm)
- Mid-Trend Probability Factors:
– High ADX reading: +40%
– Trend consistency: +30% (Price movement is not consistent)
– Channel adherence: +30% (Price does not adhere to a clear channel)
- Exhaustion Probability Factors:
– ADX decline from peaks: +35% (ADX is not declining)
– Multiple divergence signals: +40% (No clear divergences)
– Extended trend duration: +25% (Trend duration is not extended)
Final Output:
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 60%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Moving Average Pullback:
– In downtrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope down), price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area, bearish candle appears, and retracement volume decreases.
– Current Close = 4844.22000000
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 4850.72244444
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4859.41029238
– Volume: 1975 (Decreased from previous bars)
– Candle: Bearish (Close < Open)
– Signal: Sell Signal?
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry:
– Price retraces from swing low to 61.8% Fibonacci level and faces resistance, RSI(14) declines from >60 zone, MACD death cross confirmation.
– Swing High: 5300.80000000 (Recent high)
– Swing Low: 4772.81000000 (Recent low)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 5000.00000000
– Current Close = 4844.22000000 (Below 61.8% Fibonacci level)
– RSI(14) = 41.39102963 (Declining)
– MACD Death Cross: False (MACD Histogram = -6.45532204, below signal line)
– Signal: Watch Signal?
Actionable Signals:
- Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
- Watch Signal? (Fibonacci Retracement Entry)
Suggested Action: Plan Short
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify common candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Use 5-minute, 15-minute, and 1-hour timeframes for confluence.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators like RSI and MACD.
#### XAUUSD 5-min Specific Considerations:
- Session: Asian Session (09:00-14:00) – Tendency for ranging, lower volatility thresholds apply.
- Economic News: Filter signals 15 minutes before/after major news events.
- Overnight Gaps: Consider gap fills as potential support/resistance levels.
#### Analysis:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Observed in the recent 5-minute bars.
– Bearish Pin Bar: Observed in the recent 5-minute bars.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 41.39102963: Below 50, indicating bearish momentum.
– MACD Histogram = -6.45532204: Below zero, indicating bearish momentum.
– Volume: Decreasing, confirming bearish momentum.
High-Confidence Trading Signals:
- Sell Signal? (Bearish Engulfing Pattern and Bearish Pin Bar)
Comparison:
- Step 2 (Specified Model): Sell Signal? (Moving Average Pullback)
- Step 3 (Autonomous AI Analysis): Sell Signal? (Bearish Engulfing Pattern and Bearish Pin Bar)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Step 2 Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Step 3 Score: -1 (Sell Signal)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (-1 × 0.6) + (-1 × 0.4) = -1.0
Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Short: Final Score ≤ -0.4
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ATR(14) = 28.95571429
- ADX = 30.76671737 (Strong Trend)
- Time Factor (Asian Session): 1.1
- Volatility Factor (Normal Volatility): 1.0
- Base Multiplier: 2.5 × ATR = 2.5 × 28.95571429 = 72.38928573
- Adjusted Stop-Loss: 72.38928573 × 1.1 × 1.0 = 79.62821431
- Stop-Loss Price: 4844.22000000 + 79.62821431 = 4923.84821431 (Round to 4923.85)
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX: 2.0:1 (Strong Trend)
- Swing Points: 5300.80000000 (Recent high)
- ATR Buffer: 0.5 × 28.95571429 = 14.47785715
- Take-Profit Price: 4844.22000000 – (79.62821431 × 2.0) = 4684.96357138 (Round to 4684.96)
The Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Short
- Trade entry price: >>> 4844.22 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: ->> 4923.85 <<-
- Take-Profit price: +>> 4684.96 <<+
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bearish) | Confidence: 60%
- Trading Signal: Short
- Entry Price: 4844.22
- Stop-Loss Price: 4923.85
- Take-Profit Price: 4684.96
- Reasons:
– Moving Average Pullback: Price retraced to HMA, bearish candle, and decreasing volume.
– Bearish Candlestick Patterns: Bearish Engulfing and Bearish Pin Bar.
– Indicators: RSI below 50, MACD below zero, and decreasing volume.
This trading plan is based on the current market conditions and should be executed with caution, considering the risk management rules.