Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 25.02796807
Since ( 21.83761353 leq text{ADX(14)} < 29.83761353 ), we analyze this as a Weak Trend Market.
#### Weak Trend Market Analysis (21.83761353 ≤ ADX < 29.83761353)
- Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- Clear breakout above (bullish) or below (bearish) a key resistance or support level:
– Below 20-period Low: True
– Above 20-period High: False
– Magnitude of Breakout: 0.51%
- Volume expansion confirms the breakout:
– Volume Spike (>1.5x average): False
– Volume Ratio: 1.03
- ADX begins to rise from low levels:
– ADX(14) = 25.02796807 (This is not rising from a very low level, but it is in the weak trend range)
- Price maintains direction in the breakout’s favor for multiple bars:
– The price has been below the 20-period low and has maintained a bearish direction.
Classification:
- Conditions Met:
– Clear breakout below a key support level (20-period low).
– Price maintains direction in the breakout’s favor.
– Volume does not show a significant spike, but the ratio is slightly above 1, indicating some volume confirmation.
- Conclusion:
– Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout
– Prerequisite: BB Width < Dynamic Bandwidth Threshold
– BB Bandwidth = 0.00555281 (Dynamic Bandwidth = 0.02264146)
– Condition Met: True
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): Close 1.0 AND Breakout Confirmation
– Close = 4785.84000000
– KC Lower = 4735.41063944
– Breakout Filter = 71.15142857
– VO = 4.13718255
– Condition Met: False (Close is not below KC Lower – Breakout Filter)
- Volume – Price Breakout of Previous High / Low
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): Close 0.1%
– Close = 4785.84000000
– Previous 20-period Low = 4735.41063944
– Increased Volume: False (Volume Ratio = 1.03)
– Breakout Magnitude = 0.51%
– Condition Met: False (Close is not below the 20-period Low and no significant volume increase)
- DMI Momentum Crossover Start
– Prerequisite: 21.83761353 ≤ ADX(14) < 29.83761353
– Condition Met: True
– Trend Initiation Bearish (Sell): -DI(14) crosses above +DI(14) (Death Cross)
– +DI(14) = 15.05092089
– -DI(14) = 15.50502562
– Condition Met: True (-DI(14) is above +DI(14))
Scan Results:
- Volatility Squeeze Breakout: No Signal
- Volume – Price Breakout: No Signal
- DMI Momentum Crossover: Sell Signal
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify candlestick patterns and their implications.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Consider the broader context from higher timeframes.
- Confluence of Divergences: Look for divergences between price and indicators.
#### Observations:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Not present.
– Doji or Spinning Top: Not present.
– Bearish Pin Bar: Not present.
- Indicators:
– RSI(14) = 57.74229256 (Neutral, not overbought or oversold)
– MACD Histogram = -4.04761301 (Below Signal Line, bearish)
– Stochastic %K = 55.13446990, %D = 52.70142956 (Neutral, not overbought or oversold)
– CCI(14) = 59.21122511 (Neutral, not overbought or oversold)
- Trend Indicators:
– HMA (Dynamic Period) = 4780.46447619 (Slightly below current close, bearish)
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4778.48436962 (Slightly below current close, bearish)
- Support/Resistance:
– Pivot Points:
– PP = 4733.02333333
– S1 = 4667.97666667
– R1 = 4862.46666667
- Volume:
– OBV = 3682281.00000000 (No significant change)
– MFI(14) = 61.79530477 (Neutral, not overbought or oversold)
Autonomous Analysis Summary:
- Bearish Indicators:
– MACD below signal line.
– HMA and KAMA slightly below current close.
– -DI(14) above +DI(14).
- Neutral Indicators:
– RSI, Stochastic, and CCI are neutral.
– No significant candlestick patterns.
- Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal (Based on DMI crossover and MACD position)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Sell Signal (+1)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Sell Signal (+1)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Step2_Score = +1
– Step3_Score = +1
– Final Score = (1 × 0.6) + (1 × 0.4) = 1.0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– Plan Short: Final Score ≥ 0.4
- Stop-Loss Strategy:
– ADX = 25.02796807 (Normal Ranging)
– ATR = 23.71714286
– Time Factor (NY Main Session): 0.8
– Volatility Factor (Normal Volatility): 1.0
– Base Multiplier = max(3.0 × ATR, 1.4 × distance to key level)
– Distance to Key Level (S1 = 4667.97666667): 4785.84 – 4667.97666667 = 117.86333333
– Base Multiplier = max(3.0 × 23.71714286, 1.4 × 117.86333333) = max(71.15142858, 165.00866666) = 165.00866666
– Adjusted Stop-Loss = 165.00866666 × 0.8 × 1.0 = 132.00693333
– Stop-Loss Price = 4785.84 – 132.00693333 = 4653.83306667 ≈ 4653.83
- Take-Profit Strategy:
– Risk-Reward Ratio (Normal Ranging): Minimum 1.3:1, Ideal 2.0:1
– Risk = 132.00693333
– Minimum Take-Profit = 4785.84 + (1.3 × 132.00693333) = 4785.84 + 171.60901333 = 4957.44901333 ≈ 4957.45
– Ideal Take-Profit = 4785.84 + (2.0 × 132.00693333) = 4785.84 + 264.01386666 = 5049.85386666 ≈ 5049.85
- Final Signal:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: >>> 4785.84 <<<
– Signal Strength: =>> -10 <<=
– **Stop-Loss price: <span class="resistance"> 4653.83 </span>**
– **Take-Profit price: <span class="support"> 5049.85 </span>**
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Trend Initiation (Bearish) | Confidence: 75%
- Specified Model Analysis:
– Volatility Squeeze Breakout: No Signal
– Volume – Price Breakout: No Signal
– DMI Momentum Crossover: Sell Signal
- Autonomous AI Analysis:
– Bearish Indicators:
– MACD below signal line.
– HMA and KAMA slightly below current close.
– -DI(14) above +DI(14).
– Neutral Indicators:
– RSI, Stochastic, and CCI are neutral.
– No significant candlestick patterns.
– Actionable Signals:
– Sell Signal
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Short
– Trade entry price: 4785.84
– Signal Strength: -10
– Stop-Loss price: 4653.83
– Take-Profit price: 5049.85