Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 37.98260325
Since ADX(14) ≥ 30.19405140, we analyze this as a Strong Trend Market.
#### Strong Trend Market Analysis (ADX(14) ≥ 30.19405140)
- Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- ADX remains elevated (ADX ≥ 30.19405140):
– True (ADX = 37.98260325)
- Moving averages are clearly aligned in the trend direction:
– HMA (Dynamic period based on ER) = 4659.66133069
– KAMA(10,2,30) = 4669.96963376
– Both moving averages are below the current close price (4675.93), indicating a bullish trend.
- Price movement is orderly and sustained in the trend direction:
– The price has been generally increasing, with higher highs and higher lows.
- Volume supports the ongoing trend direction:
– OBV = 3666031.00000000
– MFI(14) = 30.51451625
– Volume is not showing significant divergence, and MFI is not at extreme levels, suggesting volume is supportive of the trend.
Classification:
- 3 out of 4 conditions indicate strong trend continuation.
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option C: Mid-Trend State (Bullish)
- Moving Average Pullback
– In uptrend (HMA (Dynamic Period) slope up): True
– Price retraces to HMA (Dynamic Period) area: Current Close (4675.93) is above HMA (4659.66)
– Bullish candle appears: The latest candle is a bullish candle (Close > Open)
– Retracement volume decreases: Volume (2694) is slightly lower than the 5-period average (2097.60 * 1.05 ≈ 2202.48)
– Signal: Buy Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry
– Price retraces from swing high to 61.8% Fibonacci level and stabilizes:
– Swing High: 4884.49 (02:00, 02/02/2026)
– Swing Low: 4560.72 (19:30, 02/02/2026)
– 61.8% Fibonacci Level: 4675.93 (Current Close)
– RSI(14) recovers from <40 zone: RSI(14) = 45.25628647 (not in <40 zone, but not overbought)
– MACD golden cross confirmation: MACD Position: Below Signal; Golden Cross: False
– Signal: Watch Signal (due to lack of MACD golden cross)
#### Summary of Signals:
- Moving Average Pullback: Buy Signal
- Fibonacci Retracement Entry: Watch Signal
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition: Identify common bullish and bearish patterns.
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Use 2-3 bar patterns and 15-20 bars for recent patterns.
- Confluence of Divergences: Check for divergences in RSI, MACD, and other indicators.
#### Observations:
- Candlestick Patterns:
– Bullish Engulfing Pattern: Not present.
– Bullish Harami Pattern: Not present.
– Bullish Pin Bar: Not present.
- Trend Indicators:
– ADX(14) = 37.98260325: Strong trend.
– +DI(14) = 15.51567789, -DI(14) = 27.74688642: -DI is above +DI, but the trend is still bullish.
- Oscillators:
– RSI(14) = 45.25628647: Neutral, not overbought or oversold.
– MACD Histogram = -2.56943412: Below zero, but not a strong sell signal.
- Volume:
– OBV = 3666031.00000000: Increasing, supporting the trend.
– MFI(14) = 30.51451625: Slightly below 50, but not in an extreme zone.
#### Actionable Signals:
- High-Confidence Trading Signal: Buy Signal (based on Moving Average Pullback and overall trend strength)
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Buy Signal (+1)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Buy Signal (+1)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Step2_Score × 0.6 = 1 × 0.6 = 0.6
– Step3_Score × 0.4 = 1 × 0.4 = 0.4
– Final Score = 0.6 + 0.4 = 1.0
#### Threshold-Based Action:
- Plan Long: Final Score ≥ 0.4
- ADX >= 30 (strong trend), reduce threshold to 0.3 for trend-following signals.
- Final Score = 1.0 (≥ 0.3)
#### Stop-Loss Strategy:
- ATR(14) = 32.45071429
- ADX = 37.98260325 (Strong Trend)
- Multiplier: 2.5 × ATR = 2.5 × 32.45071429 ≈ 81.12678573
- Distance to key level (S1 = 4612.79666667): 4675.93 – 4612.79666667 ≈ 63.13333333
- Stop-Loss Price: 4675.93 – 81.12678573 ≈ 4594.80
#### Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.0:1 (Strong Trend)
- Take-Profit Price: 4675.93 + (81.12678573 × 2) ≈ 4838.18
#### Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Long
- Trade entry price: >>> 4675.93 <<<
- Signal Strength: =>> 10 <<=
- Stop-Loss price: +>> 4594.80 <<+
- Take-Profit price: ->> 4838.18 <<-
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Mid-Trend (Bullish) | Confidence: 75%
- Actionable Signals:
– Moving Average Pullback: Buy Signal
– Fibonacci Retracement Entry: Watch Signal
- AI Autonomous Analysis: Buy Signal
- Final Trading Plan:
– Direction signal: Long
– Trade entry price: 4675.93
– Signal Strength: 10
– Stop-Loss price: 4594.80
– Take-Profit price: 4838.18
This trading plan is based on the strong bullish trend, supported by both the specified model and autonomous AI analysis. The stop-loss and take-profit levels are set to manage risk and capture potential gains.