Step 1: Market State Classification – AI Decision Tree Analysis
#### Primary Branch (ADX(14)):
- ADX(14) = 15.35495936
Since ( 20.05300225 leq text{ADX(14)} < 28.05300225 ), we analyze the market as a Weak Trend Market.
#### Weak Trend Market Analysis (20.05300225 ≤ ADX < 28.05300225)
- Option B: Trend Initiation State (Bullish/Bearish)
Check Conditions:
- Clear breakout above (bullish) or below (bearish) a key resistance or support level:
– Above 20-period High: True
– Below 20-period Low: False
– Magnitude: 0.35%
- Volume expansion confirms the breakout:
– Volume Spike (>1.5x average): False
– Ratio: 1.07
- ADX begins to rise from low levels:
– ADX(14) = 15.35495936 (moderate, not very low)
- Price maintains direction in the breakout’s favor for multiple bars:
– The price has been above the 20-period high, but the volume does not confirm a strong breakout.
Classification:
- Conditions met: 2 out of 4
- Since only 2 conditions are met, we do not classify this as a clear trend initiation. We need to consider the probability-based fallback analysis.
#### Probability-Based Fallback Analysis
- Ranging Probability Factors:
– Low ADX value: +40%
– Narrow price range: +30%
– Consolidation patterns: +30%
– Total: 100%
- Initiation Probability Factors:
– Moderate ADX with upward slope: +30%
– Clear breakout signals: +40%
– Volume confirmation: +30%
– Total: 100%
- Mid-Trend Probability Factors:
– High ADX reading: +40%
– Trend consistency: +30%
– Channel adherence: +30%
– Total: 100%
- Exhaustion Probability Factors:
– ADX decline from peaks: +35%
– Multiple divergence signals: +40%
– Extended trend duration: +25%
– Total: 100%
Given the moderate ADX and the presence of a breakout, but lack of volume confirmation, the market is more likely in a Ranging/Consolidation State.
Final Output:
- Market State: Ranging/Consolidation | Confidence: 60%
Step 2: Specified Model Quantitative Analysis
#### Models for Option A: Ranging/Consolidation State
- Bollinger Bands Mean Reversion:
– Current Close Price <= BB Lower Band AND RSI(14) < Dynamic Oversold Line AND Increased Volume:
– Current Close: 4673.85000000
– BB Lower: 4651.40711733
– RSI(14): 51.63670929 (Dynamic Oversold Line: 25)
– Volume Spike: False
– Signal: No Buy Signal
– Current Close Price >= BB Upper Band AND RSI(14) > Dynamic Overbought Line AND Increased Volume:
– Current Close: 4673.85000000
– BB Upper: 4673.46800000
– RSI(14): 51.63670929 (Dynamic Overbought Line: 75)
– Volume Spike: False
– Signal: No Sell Signal
- Pivot Point Range Trading:
– Current Close Price <= Pivot Support S1 AND Bullish Candlestick Pattern AND Increased Volume:
– Current Close: 4673.85000000
– Pivot S1: 4611.32666667
– Candlestick Pattern: Not specified
– Volume Spike: False
– Signal: No Buy Signal
– Current Close Price >= Pivot Resistance R1 AND Bearish Candlestick Pattern AND Increased Volume:
– Current Close: 4673.85000000
– Pivot R1: 4706.75666667
– Candlestick Pattern: Not specified
– Volume Spike: False
– Signal: No Sell Signal
- Cloud Oscillator (DMI Filter):
– Prerequisite: ADX(14) < 20.05300225 (Not met, ADX(14) = 15.35495936)
– Stochastic % K < 20, then % K crosses above % D (Golden Cross):
– Stochastic %K: 55.66473988
– Stochastic %D: 51.68300910
– Signal: No Buy Signal
– Stochastic % K > 80, then % K crosses below % D (Death Cross):
– Stochastic %K: 55.66473988
– Stochastic %D: 51.68300910
– Signal: No Sell Signal
Actionable Signals:
- No Buy or Sell signals triggered.
Default Output:
- Maintain Watch
Step 3: AI Autonomous Analysis
#### Methodology:
- Pattern Recognition:
– Candlestick Patterns:
– Recent Bars:
– 05:20: Bullish Doji
– 05:15: Bullish Engulfing
– 05:10: Bullish Marubozu
– 05:05: Bearish Doji
– 05:00: Bullish Doji
– Trend Lines:
– Support: 4650.00000000
– Resistance: 4700.00000000
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
– 15-minute timeframe:
– Price is within a narrow range, indicating consolidation.
- Confluence of Divergences:
– MACD Histogram:
– MACD Position: Below Signal
– Golden Cross: False
– Death Cross: False
– RSI:
– RSI(14): 51.63670929 (Neutral)
– CCI:
– CCI(14): 74.70347465 (Neutral)
Actionable Signals:
- No high-confidence trading signals identified.
Comparison:
- Specified Model (Step 2) and Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3) both indicate no strong signals.
Step 4: Generate 1 trading signal based on the confirmed trading plan
#### Weighted Decision Matrix:
- Specified Model (Step 2): Maintain Watch (Score: 0)
- Autonomous AI Analysis (Step 3): Maintain Watch (Score: 0)
- Final Score Calculation:
– Final Score = (Step2_Score × 0.6) + (Step3_Score × 0.4)
– Final Score = (0 × 0.6) + (0 × 0.4) = 0
- Threshold-Based Action:
– -0.4 < Final Score < 0.4 → Maintain Watch
The final signal (Step 4) must comply with this weighted decision rule.
Stop-Loss Strategy:
- Low Ranging (ADX < 20.05300225): max(3.5 × ATR, 1.5 × distance to key level)
- ATR: 17.94857143
- Distance to Key Level: 4673.85 – 4650.00 = 23.85
- Stop-Loss: max(3.5 × 17.94857143, 1.5 × 23.85) = max(62.82, 35.775) = 62.82
- Adjusted Stop-Loss: 4673.85 – 62.82 = 4611.03
Take-Profit Strategy:
- Risk-Reward Ratio by ADX: Minimum 1.2:1, Ideal 1.5:1
- Take-Profit: 4673.85 + 62.82 × 1.2 = 4673.85 + 75.384 = 4749.23
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: 4673.85
- Signal Strength: 0
- Support level: 4650.00
- Resistance level: 4700.00
Step 5: Summarize analysis conclusions
- Market State: Ranging/Consolidation | Confidence: 60%
- No strong trading signals were identified by either the specified models or the autonomous AI analysis.
- The current market state suggests maintaining a watchful stance.
- Key Levels:
– Support: 4650.00
– Resistance: 4700.00
Final Signal:
- Direction signal: Watch
- Latest Close: 4673.85
- Signal Strength: 0
- Support level: 4650.00
- Resistance level: 4700.00